Match Info

FIFA Intercontinental Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 10 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Ahmad bin Ali Stadium (Al Rayyan)

Referee: Nyberg G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Brazil	Caze TV, SporTV, TV Globo
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
France	beIN Sports 2
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
World	FIFA+


	Cruz Azul		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	5.4	3.7	1.62
	6.26	3.83	1.63
	5.71	3.38	1.67	Watch
	5	3.4	1.57
	5.56	3.7	1.62
	5.75	4	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.61 ↑ (5)	3.67 ↓ (4)	1.62 ↓ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruz Azul
16.7%

Draw
25.5%

Flamengo
57.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.8%

23.5%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18%

22.4%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruz Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	11.8%	70.6%

Cruz Azul - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Cruz Azul will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Flamengo will win (votes: 12 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruz Azul (votes: 2 - 50%). Flamengo (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Flamengo (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruz Azul (votes: 2 - 40%). Flamengo (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gudino A. (G) 4. Ditta W. 6. Lira E. 33. Piovi G. 2. Sanchez J. 16. Marquez J. 19. Rodriguez C. 29. Rotondi C. 20. Paradela J. 15. Rivero I. (C) 21. Fernandez G.	1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 26. Alex Sandro 5. Pulgar E. 21. Jorginho 15. Carrascal J. 10. de Arrascaeta G. 16. Samuel Lino 27. Bruno Henrique (C)
Substitutes
7. Bogusz M. 3. Campos O. 8. Faravelli L. 17. Garcia A. 38. Levy M. 31. Morales A. 30. Ochoa E. (G) 34. Rodarte J. 18. Romero L. 41. Salgado B. (G) 24. Sanchez E. 9. Sepulveda A. 28. Valdez D. 42. Velazquez K.	6. Ayrton Lucas 13. Danilo 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 22. Emerson Royal 11. Everton 52. Evertton Araujo 23. Juninho 7. Luiz Araujo 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 30. Michael 8. Niguez S. 9. Pedro 50. Plata G. 64. Wallace Yan
Coaches
Larcamon N.	Filipe Luis

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, de Arrascaeta G. ⚽,
36', Lira E. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Sanchez J. ⚽, Rodriguez C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Samuel Lino ↓, Plata G. ↑,
67', Carrascal J. ↓, Everton ↑,
71', 1 - 2, de Arrascaeta G. ⚽,
73', Paradela J. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
77', Jorginho 🟨,
81', Marquez J. ↓, Faravelli L. ↑,
81', Rivero I. ↓, Campos O. ↑,
81', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
81', Jorginho ↓, de la Cruz N. ↑,
87', Sanchez J. ↓, Sepulveda A. ↑,
87', Rotondi C. ↓, Bogusz M. ↑,
87', Pulgar E. ↓, Niguez S. ↑,
90+4', Alex Sandro 🟨,
90+5', Everton 🟨,
90+6', Piovi G. 🟨,
90+6', de la Cruz N. 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location - Ahmad bin Ali Stadium.

Cruz Azul has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Flamengo is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Flamengo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Flamengo is considered a favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 57.69%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruz Azul FC
Mexican Liga MX
06.12.25	Tigres UANL - Cruz Azul	1:1 ✺
03.12.25	Cruz Azul - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Cruz Azul - Chivas Guadalajara	3:2 ✺
27.11.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Cruz Azul	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Cruz Azul - UNAM	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTWTL
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
06.12.25	Mirassol - Flamengo	3:3 ✺
03.12.25	Flamengo - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.11.25	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Flamengo - Red Bull Bragantino	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TWWTW

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