Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 23

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	TV Record
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Laola1, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 1
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Mirassol		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	4.20	3.50	1.81	Watch
	3.90	3.60	1.90
	4.50	3.40	1.79	Watch
	4.59	3.58	1.90
	3.78	3.67	1.96
	4.50	3.55	1.86
	3.93	3.52	1.99	Watch
	4.20	3.50	1.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.2 ↑ (4.04)	3.54 ↑ (3.44)	1.89 ↓ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
22.7%

Draw
26.9%

Flamengo
50.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.2%

27.3%

49.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.7%

26.8%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

The ML Model estimate for Mirassol aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10%	90%

Mirassol - Flamengo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Flamengo will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor (C) 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo 55. Cazonatti G. 80. Wallisson 95. Edson Carioca 8. Denilson 17. Fernandinho 30. Bruno Santos	1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 13. Danilo 4. Leo Pereira (C) 6. Ayrton Lucas 5. Pulgar E. 20. Lucas Paqueta 7. Luiz Araujo 15. Carrascal J. 19. Plata G. 9. Pedro
Substitutes
77. Alesson 23. Alex Muralha (G) 9. Andre Luis 10. Chico Kim 33. Eduardo 18. Elias 44. Gabriel Knesowitsch 19. Gustavo Silva 5. Japa 2. Lucas Oliveira 25. Neto Moura 12. Victor Luis	42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 10. de Arrascaeta G. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 22. Emerson Royal 52. Evertton Araujo 77. Goes J. 21. Jorginho 3. Leo Ortiz 99. Lorran 8. Niguez S. 16. Samuel Lino 64. Wallace Yan
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Edson Carioca ↓, Alesson ↑,
22', 0 - 1, Carrascal J. ⚽, Plata G. (A),
45+3', Denilson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Wallisson ↓, Eduardo ↑,
51', Cazonatti G. 🟨,
53', 0 - 2, Luiz Araujo ⚽, Carrascal J. (A),
54', Denilson ↓, Japa ↑,
54', Cazonatti G. ↓, Neto Moura ↑,
56', 0 - 3, Pedro ⚽, Ayrton Lucas (A),
63', Luiz Araujo ↓, Samuel Lino ↑,
63', Pulgar E. ↓, Evertton Araujo ↑,
63', Plata G. ↓, Jorginho ↑,
66', 0 - 4, Pedro ⚽, Carrascal J. (A),
69', Ayrton Lucas ↓, Goes J. ↑,
69', Fernandinho ↓, Gustavo Silva ↑,
74', Lucas Paqueta ↓, de Arrascaeta G. ↑,
74', 0 - 5, Samuel Lino ⚽, de Arrascaeta G. (A),
77', 1 - 5, Joao Victor ⚽, Reinaldo (A),
85', Neto Moura 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In recent matches, Mirassol has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Flamengo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mirassol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Flamengo is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Mirassol: Negueba (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Flamengo: Alex Sandro (Inactive) Everton (Inactive) Luiz Araujo (Knee Injury) Vitao (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Mirassol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Flamengo RJ: 59.97%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	29	18	7	4	57:25	32	61
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 49.45%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Copa Libertadores
13.08.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Cruzeiro - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Grêmio - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
02.08.26	Mirassol - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.07.26	Mirassol - Remo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLLTW
- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
12.08.26	Cruzeiro - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Flamengo - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
29.07.26	Internacional RS - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
26.07.26	Flamengo - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
22.07.26	Chapecoense - Flamengo	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
06.12.25	Mirassol - Flamengo	3:3
09.08.25	Flamengo - Mirassol	2:1

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