Match Info

EFL Trophy

Date: 7 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Highbury Stadium (Fleetwood)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Fleetwood Town		Leeds United U21

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	3.9
	1.7	3.95	3.95
	1.74	4.07	3.9
	1.67	4.16	4.47	Watch
	1.74	3.92	4.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.9)	4.02 ↑ (3.78)	4.06 ↑ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fleetwood Town
54.2%

Draw
23%

Leeds United U21
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

24.4%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

24.2%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fleetwood Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fleetwood Town's performance.

Leeds United U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fleetwood Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United U21 than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	6.2%	12.5%

Fleetwood Town - Leeds United U21 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Fleetwood (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Leeds U21 (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Fleetwood (1.84) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Fleetwood Town will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Fleetwood (votes: 6 - 60%). Leeds U21 (votes: 3 - 30%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Harrington D. (G) 35. Haughey C. 18. Holgate H. 32. Hughes K. 34. Roberts L. 23. Morrison G. 20. Neal H. 14. McCann L. 8. Virtue-Thick M. (C) 11. Norwood J. 9. Davies W.	56. Ombang D. (G) 55. Dudley L. 70. Lopata-White R. 52. Cresswell A. (C) 60. Firth W. 72. Pickles O. 53. Douglas C. 78. Vincent H. 51. Chadwick-Chaplin R. 71. McDonald J. 47. Brockie D.
Substitutes
42. Bellizia O. (G) 39. Cirino R. 19. Coughlan R. 16. Ennis E. 10. Helm M. 38. McLean C. 3. Medley Z.	42. Chambers S. 59. Howard J. 79. Philpott L. 86. Pirie L. 91. Render J. 93. White L. 95. Wood O. (G)
Coaches
Wild P.	Gardner S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Norwood J. ⚽, Roberts L. (A),
30', 2 - 0, Davies W. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', 3 - 0, Norwood J. ⚽, Virtue-Thick M. (A),
60', McDonald J. ↓, Chambers S. ↑,
60', Dudley L. ↓, Philpott L. ↑,
60', Virtue-Thick M. ↓, McLean C. ↑,
66', Davies W. ↓, Coughlan R. ↑,
67', McCann L. ↓, Ennis E. ↑,
68', Neal H. 🟨,
70', Morrison G. 🟨,
70', Neal H. ↓, Helm M. ↑,
78', Lopata-White R. ↓, White L. ↑,
87', 4 - 0, Norwood J. ⚽, Hughes K. (A),

Preview

Fleetwood is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leeds U21 is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Leeds U21 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fleetwood is seen as the favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Fleetwood Town - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 48.55%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fleetwood Town
English League Two
04.10.25	Cheltenham Town - Fleetwood Town	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Fleetwood Town - Colchester United	4:2 ✺
20.09.25	Cambridge United - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Fleetwood Town - Walsall	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Notts County - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLTL
- Leeds United U21
English Premier League 2
03.10.25	West Bromwich Albion U21 - Leeds United U21	2:2 ✺
29.09.25	Leeds United U21 - Norwich City U21	1:0 ✺
English Premier League International Cup
25.09.25	Leeds United U21 - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
English Premier League 2
22.09.25	Crystal Palace U21 - Leeds United U21	3:2 ✺
English National League Cup
16.09.25	Scunthorpe United - Leeds United U21	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TWWLW

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