Match Info

Brasileiro Women - Round 12

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Luso Brasileiro (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Fluminense		Bahia

	1	X	2
	2.18	3	3.1
	2.28	3.02	3.25
	2.35	2.89	3.36	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3
	2.15	3.2	3.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.35)	3 ↓ (3.25)	3.16 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
40.8%

Draw
30.3%

Bahia
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

28.5%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

28.9%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Fluminense - Bahia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Kemelli (G) 26. Anny 5. Claudinha 33. Cotrim (C) 35. Driely 11. Kamilla 20. Keke 21. Lele 4. Nath Rodrigues 77. Raquel 10. Sochor	12. Yanne (G) 3. Aila 28. Cassia 2. Dan 5. Gomez A. (C) 27. Raquel 17. Roqueline 7. Rosa W. 10. Sena Taty 77. Suelen 64. Tchula
Substitutes
7. Bruna Pele 13. Cacau 18. Camila Oliveira 97. Dani Venturini 15. Debora Sorriso 81. Duarte K. 3. Gislaine 8. Karina 12. Leticia Bussatto (G) 41. Louvain 27. Santos Silva T. 6. Tata	11. Dani 20. Ellen Santana 9. Gica 88. Helo 22. Isa Cruz (G) 97. Isa Fernandes 13. Mila Santos 14. Rute Deveza 70. Terra M. 18. Vilma

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Suelen 🟨,
40', Nath Rodrigues 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 3)
46', Suelen ↓, Rute Deveza ↑,
46', Lele ↓, Bruna Pele ↑,
61', Nath Rodrigues ↓, Debora Sorriso ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Bruna Pele ⚽,
64', Rosa W. 🟨,
64', Sena Taty ↓, Ellen Santana ↑,
68', Claudinha ↓, Karina ↑,
69', Anny ↓, Gislaine ↑,
72', Tchula ↓, Dani ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Rosa W. ⚽,
78', 1 - 2, Rosa W. ⚽,
81', Driely ↓, Duarte K. ↑,
83', 2 - 2, Duarte K. ⚽,
85', Dan ↓, Vilma ↑,
86', Rosa W. ↓, Terra M. ↑,
87', 3 - 2, Duarte K. ⚽,
90+1', Gomez A. 🟨,
90+6', 3 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Brasileiro Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Fluminense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bahia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 1:2.7).

Including home match between the teams, Fluminense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ Women
Brasileiro Women
15.05.26	Flamengo - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Fluminense - Santos	0:2 ✺
01.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Mixto - Fluminense	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLTWL
- EC Bahia Women
Brasileiro Women
16.05.26	Bahia - Internacional	3:0 ✺
09.05.26	Mixto - Bahia	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Bahia - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
28.04.26	Bahia - Grêmio Porto Alegrense	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Flamengo - Bahia	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brasileiro Women
27.04.25	Bahia - Fluminense	2:1
Brasileiro A2 Women
23.07.22	Bahia - Fluminense	4:2
11.06.22	Fluminense - Bahia	0:2

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