Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 28

Date: 16 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Ferreira J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fluminense		Juventude

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	9.5	Watch
	1.32	4.7	9.8
	1.35	4.98	10.59
	1.36	5.12	10.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.44)	4.95 ↑ (4.33)	10.02 ↑ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
71.2%

Draw
19.3%

Juventude
9.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65%

21.6%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2%

20.9%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fluminense's performance.

Juventude has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	30.8%	7.7%

Fluminense - Juventude Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Juventude will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH -2 - Fluminense (4.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 3. Thiago Silva (C) 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 35. Hercules 8. Martinelli 17. Canobbio A. 45. Lima 90. Serna K. 14. Cano G.	13. Jandrei (G) 32. Igor Formiga 23. Abner 47. Marcos Paulo 28. Alan Ruschel (C) 16. Jadson 95. Caique Goncalves 99. Rafael Bilu 19. Gabriel Taliari 44. Mandaca 9. Gilberto
Substitutes
5. Bernal F. 9. Everaldo 12. Fuentes G. 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 99. John Kennedy 18. Lezcano R. 30. Moreno S. 94. Otavio 28. Riquelme Felipe 7. Soteldo Y. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	43. Bernardo 5. Cipriano 87. Edison Negueba 97. Enio 11. Giovanny 25. Guruceaga G. (G) 22. Marcelo Hermes 10. Nene 72. Peixoto 93. Reginaldo 90. Scatolin J. 6. Sforza J.
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Jadson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Mandaca 🟨,
52', Mandaca ↓, Enio ↑,
52', Gilberto ↓, Nene ↑,
58', Freytes J. 🟨,
60', Lima ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
60', Rene ↓, Fuentes G. ↑,
71', Gabriel Taliari 🟨,
71', Thiago Silva 🟨,
72', Rafael Bilu ↓, Edison Negueba ↑,
76', Serna K. ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
80', Gabriel Taliari ↓, Giovanny ↑,
80', Jadson ↓, Peixoto ↑,
81', Marcos Paulo 🟨,
81', Cano G. ↓, Everaldo ↑,
81', Canobbio A. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
86', Jandrei 🟨,
90+8', 1 - 0, Thiago Silva ⚽, Riquelme Felipe (A),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 0.

Recent performances by Fluminense have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Juventude is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Juventude may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fluminense is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Fluminense: Nonato (Injury) PH Ganso (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Juventude: Angel W. (Thigh Injury) Gabriel Veron (Hamstring Injury) Nata (Hamstring Injury) Rodrigo Sam (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Juventude: Abner (Injury) Emerson Galego (Ankle Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.25	Mirassol - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	3:0 ✺
01.10.25	Sport Recife - Fluminense	2:2 ✺
28.09.25	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.09.25	Fluminense - Lanús	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWTWT
- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.25	Palmeiras - Juventude	4:1 ✺
05.10.25	Juventude - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Atlético Mineiro - Juventude	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Juventude - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Mirassol - Juventude	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Juventude - Fluminense	1:1
15.09.24	Juventude - Fluminense	2:1
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Fluminense - Juventude	2:2
01.08.24	Juventude - Fluminense	3:2
Brazilian Serie A
01.06.24	Fluminense - Juventude	1:1
28.09.22	Fluminense - Juventude	4:0
05.06.22	Juventude - Fluminense	1:0

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