Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 26

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sport Recife		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3.55	3.05	2.18
	3.76	3.18	2.24
	3.57	3.28	2.19	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (2.9)	3.16 ↑ (3.1)	2.25 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
27.5%

Draw
30.2%

Fluminense
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

30.2%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

29.3%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	21.4%	50%

Sport Recife - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Fluminense will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Fluminense (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Fluminense (1.61) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.94) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Fluminense (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel (G) 33. Matheus Alexandre 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Ramon Menezes 36. Luan Candido 14. Rivera C. 58. Ze Lucas 19. Hyoran 17. Matheusinho 30. Chrystian Barletta 9. Ramirez I.	1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 8. Martinelli 35. Hercules 32. Acosta L. 17. Canobbio A. 14. Cano G. (C) 90. Serna K.
Substitutes
20. Atencio R. 22. Caique Franca (G) 55. Hugo V. (G) 16. Igor Carius 38. Leo Pereira 21. Lucas Kal 10. Lucas Lima 92. Pablo 7. Paciencia G. 28. Pedro Augusto 11. Romarinho 6. Silva J.	5. Bernal F. 9. Everaldo 12. Fuentes G. 21. Igor Rabello 99. John Kennedy 11. Keno 45. Lima 94. Otavio 2. Samuel Xavier 7. Soteldo Y. 29. Thiago Santos 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
Coaches
Daniel Paulista	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Ramirez I. 🟨,
45+3', Ignacio 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
59', Ramirez I. ↓, Pablo ↑,
59', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Romarinho ↑,
63', Matheusinho 🟨,
64', 0 - 1, Acosta L. ⚽, Serna K. (A),
67', Guga ↓, Samuel Xavier ↑,
69', Ze Lucas 🟨,
71', Ze Lucas ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Lucas Lima ⚽, Hyoran (A),
76', Acosta L. ↓, Lima ↑,
76', Canobbio A. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
76', Cano G. ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
83', 1 - 2, John Kennedy (Pen),
87', Matheusinho ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
87', Hyoran ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
88', Hercules ↓, Otavio ↑,
90+7', 2 - 2, Luan Candido ⚽, Lucas Lima (A),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 1.

Recife is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fluminense has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fluminense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fluminense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Derik Lacerda (Yellow Cards) Hereda (Health problems) Oliveira S. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Fluminense: PH Ganso (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fluminense: Nonato (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Recife won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:23. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Sport Recife - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.31%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
27.09.25	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Sport Recife - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Sport Recife - Vasco da Gama	2:3 ✺
25.08.25	Palmeiras - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWTLL
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
28.09.25	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.09.25	Fluminense - Lanús	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.09.25	Vitória Salvador - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.09.25	Lanús - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.25	Fluminense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Fluminense - Sport Recife	2:1
06.11.21	Fluminense - Sport Recife	1:0
10.07.21	Sport Recife - Fluminense	1:2
16.01.21	Fluminense - Sport Recife	1:0
20.09.20	Sport Recife - Fluminense	1:0
11.11.18	Fluminense - Sport Recife	0:0
22.07.18	Sport Recife - Fluminense	1:2

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