Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 17

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz


	Mirassol		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	2.85	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.65
	2.58	2.98	2.88	Watch
	2.66	3.12	3.02
	2.67	3.07	2.88
	2.63	2.88	2.75
	2.81	3.1	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (2.68)	3.06 ↓ (3.12)	2.84 ↑ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mirassol
35.7%

Draw
31%

Fluminense
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

29.5%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

27.3%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	33.3%	55.6%

Mirassol - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Fluminense will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Mirassol (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 20. Daniel Borges 34. Joao Victor (C) 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo 21. Jose Aldo 8. Denilson 96. Carlos Eduardo 7. Shaylon 77. Alesson 95. Edson Carioca	1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier (C) 3. Jemmes 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 5. Bernal F. 16. Nonato 90. Serna K. 32. Acosta L. 7. Soteldo Y. 9. John Kennedy
Substitutes
23. Alex Muralha (G) 10. Chico Kim 33. Eduardo 17. Everton Galdino 27. Galeano A. 16. Igor Carius 26. Lucas Mugni 2. Lucas Oliveira 9. Nathan Fogaca 97. Rodrigues 12. Victor Luis 5. Yuri Lara	14. Cano G. 19. Castillo R. 23. Guga 13. Guilherme Arana 35. Hercules 21. Igor Rabello 29. Millan J. 94. Otavio 10. PH Ganso 28. Riquelme Felipe 98. Vitor Eudes (G) 34. Wesley Nata
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Alesson 🟨,
33', Acosta L. 🟨,
35', Denilson 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Denilson ⚽,
38', Nonato 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Denilson ↓, Chico Kim ↑,
60', Nonato ↓, Hercules ↑,
60', Acosta L. ↓, Cano G. ↑,
68', Soteldo Y. ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
71', Alesson ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
71', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Eduardo ↑,
76', John Kennedy ↓, Wesley Nata ↑,
76', Rene ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
88', Reinaldo ↓, Victor Luis ↑,
88', Edson Carioca ↓, Lucas Oliveira ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Recently, Fluminense has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Mirassol: Andre Luis (Muscle Injury) Igor Formiga (Muscle Injury) Negueba (Knee Injury) Neto Moura (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Fluminense: Martinelli (Hamstring Injury) Matheus Reis (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Fluminense: 0.71%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48:36	12	51
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Last Results with these Odds

Mirassol - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.35%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Copa Libertadores
19.05.26	Always Ready - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Mirassol - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WLWTW
- Fluminense RJ
Copa Libertadores
19.05.26	Fluminense - Bolívar	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.05.26	Fluminense - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.05.26	Fluminense - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
06.11.25	Fluminense - Mirassol	1:0
08.10.25	Mirassol - Fluminense	2:1

Upcoming Matches