Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Paramount+, SBT, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Fluminense		Lanús

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.3	6	Watch
	1.65	3.35	5.4	Watch
	1.68	3.41	6.34
				Watch
	1.71	3.38	5.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.59)	3.36 ↓ (3.87)	5.89 ↓ (6.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
56.1%

Draw
27.9%

Lanús
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.8%

24.5%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

26.7%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fluminense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	6.7%	13.3%

Fluminense - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fluminense will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 3. Thiago Silva (C) 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 8. Martinelli 35. Hercules 17. Canobbio A. 21. Acosta L. 90. Serna K. 9. Everaldo	26. Losada N. (G) 4. Perez G. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 39. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 36. Segovia A. 10. Marcelino Moreno 11. Salvio E. 19. Castillo R.
Substitutes
14. Cano G. 12. Fuentes G. 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 99. John Kennedy 11. Keno 18. Lezcano R. 45. Lima 94. Otavio 28. Riquelme Felipe 7. Soteldo Y. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	7. Acosta L. 25. Aquino D. 9. Bou W. 14. Canelo A. 23. Carrera R. 21. Mendez A. 17. Morales L. (G) 3. Morgantini N. 2. Munoz E. 22. Quiroz T. 50. Sanchez F. 8. Watson F. N.
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Canobbio A. ⚽, Acosta L. (A),
44', Thiago Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Everaldo ↓, Cano G. ↑,
46', Hercules ↓, Otavio ↑,
48', Segovia A. 🟨,
56', Segovia A. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
56', Castillo R. ↓, Bou W. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Aquino D. ⚽, Marcelino Moreno (A),
71', Acosta L. ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
71', Serna K. ↓, Keno ↑,
77', Canobbio A. ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
82', Salvio E. ↓, Morgantini N. ↑,
82', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Watson F. N. ↑,
90', Rene 🟨,
90+2', Perez G. ↓, Munoz E. ↑,
90+7', Freytes J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Lanús may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fluminense is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fluminense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
20.09.25	Vitória Salvador - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.09.25	Lanús - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.25	Fluminense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Santos - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLLWT
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.09.25	Lanús - Platense	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.09.25	Lanús - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.09.25	Lanús - Independiente Rivadavia	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
08.09.25	Argentinos Juniors - Lanús	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
16.09.25	Lanús - Fluminense	1:0

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