Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 12

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Vivo Azzurro TV


	Follonica Gavorrano		Grosseto

	1	X	2
	4.95	3.35	1.62
	5.07	3.43	1.62
	3.26	3.20	2.11	Watch
	5.25	3.32	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.63 ↑ (3.55)	3.33 ↑ (3.08)	1.75 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Follonica Gavorrano
19.8%

Draw
27.6%

Grosseto
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

29.5%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.1%

30.1%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Follonica Gavorrano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Follonica Gavorrano's form might have worsened.

Grosseto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grosseto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Follonica Gavorrano than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Follonica Gavorrano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grosseto than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grosseto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Follonica Gavorrano - Grosseto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
33', 1 - 0, Mutton C. ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, Marzierli E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
56', 2 - 1, ⚽,
60', 2 - 2, ⚽,
74', 2 - 3, ⚽,
88', 2 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Follonica Gavorrano won 1.

Follonica Gavorrano is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Grosseto is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Grosseto might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Follonica Gavorrano won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Follonica Gavorrano won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Follonica Gavorrano
Italian Serie D - Group E
09.11.25	Montevarchi - Follonica Gavorrano	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Follonica Gavorrano - Foligno	0:2 ✺
26.10.25	Seravezza Pozzi - Follonica Gavorrano	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Follonica Gavorrano - Ghiviborgo	0:2 ✺
12.10.25	San Donato Tavarnelle - Follonica Gavorrano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLLT
- FC Grosseto
Italian Serie D - Group E
09.11.25	Grosseto - Terranuova Traiana	4:0 ✺
02.11.25	Scandicci - Grosseto	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	Grosseto - Poggibonsi	3:1 ✺
19.10.25	Orvietana - Grosseto	0:1 ✺
12.10.25	Grosseto - Tau Altopascio	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
09.03.25	Grosseto - Follonica Gavorrano	2:2
03.11.24	Follonica Gavorrano - Grosseto	0:2
18.02.24	Grosseto - Follonica Gavorrano	1:0
15.10.23	Follonica Gavorrano - Grosseto	1:1
19.02.23	Follonica Gavorrano - Grosseto	2:1
16.10.22	Grosseto - Follonica Gavorrano	0:0
27.11.19	Grosseto - Follonica Gavorrano	1:1

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