Match Info

Cearense - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Fortaleza		Ferroviário Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	1.23	5.5	9.8
	1.22	5.47	11.64	Watch
	1.25	4.6	11
	1.28	5.17	10.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.31)	5.19 ↑ (4.79)	10.84 ↑ (9.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
73.8%

Draw
17.7%

Ferroviário Fortaleza
8.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.7%

19.3%

10%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.8%

18.5%

9.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Ferroviário Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Fortaleza aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Fortaleza - Ferroviário Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Brenno (G) 4. Luan Freitas 3. Gazal 18. Fuentes G. 22. Mailton 10. Lucas Crispim 88. Lucas Sasha (C) 5. Pierre 7. Pochettino T. 21. GB 32. Luiz Fernando	93. Sivaldo Junior (G) 2. Ramires 3. Leo Paraiso 4. Iago Reis 6. Pedrinho 8. Lucas Black 16. Mena Y. 5. Luan 20. Rosa B. 17. Kiuan 9. Jefinho
Substitutes
35. Bruninho 6. Cardona T. 36. Guilherme 43. Joao Lucas 99. Kayke 38. Lucca Prior 19. Luquinhas 29. Rodrigo 75. Rodriguinho 8. Ronald 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 11. Vitinho	14. Bruno Miranda 18. Camilo 7. Carlinhos 11. Felipe Sales 26. Fernando Portel 15. Joao Neto 13. Pablo Maldini 21. Paulo Ricardo 33. Victor Brasil (G) 12. Victor Diotti
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Pereira N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Lucas Sasha ⚽, GB (A),
26', Pedrinho 🟨,
45', Leo Paraiso 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jefinho ↓, Camilo ↑,
46', Pedrinho ↓, Pablo Maldini ↑,
46', Lucas Crispim ↓, Vitinho ↑,
56', Kiuan ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
58', 2 - 0, Pochettino T. ⚽, Lucas Sasha (A),
66', Fuentes G. 🟨,
66', Luiz Fernando 🟨,
66', Ramires 🟨,
67', Iago Reis 🟥,
69', Fuentes G. ↓, Luquinhas ↑,
69', Lucas Sasha ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
69', Luiz Fernando ↓, Kayke ↑,
70', Luan ↓, Bruno Miranda ↑,
78', Gazal ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
80', Lucas Black ↓, Fernando Portel ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 2-0. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3.

Fortaleza is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Ferroviário has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Fortaleza is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Fortaleza will win today's game, with odds of 1.34.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 26:9. (average 1.4:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:3. (average 1.8:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
14.02.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Fortaleza - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
26.01.26	Fortaleza - Floresta	1:0 ✺
22.01.26	Horizonte - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTTWW
- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
14.02.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Iguatu	2:0 ✺
02.02.26	Floresta - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	1:5 ✺
22.01.26	Quixadá - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
14.02.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:2
11.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:0
08.03.25	Fortaleza - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.03.25	Fortaleza - Ferroviário Fortaleza	4:0
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
01.03.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:0
07.02.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	1:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
25.03.23	Fortaleza - Ferroviário Fortaleza	4:0

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