Match Info

Cearense - Championship Group - Round 2

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Fortaleza		Iguatu

	1	X	2
	1.25	4.98	9.39
	1.28	4.94	9.75	Watch
	1.25	4.5	11
	1.23	4.9	12.1
	1.28	5.33	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.35)	4.93 ↑ (4.32)	10.45 ↑ (8.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
72.7%

Draw
18.6%

Iguatu
8.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

21.3%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.8%

20.2%

10.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Iguatu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Iguatu than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Fortaleza - Iguatu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Brenno (G) 2. Britez E. (C) 3. Gazal 6. Cardona T. 22. Mailton 88. Lucas Sasha 29. Rodrigo 10. Lucas Crispim 11. Moises 9. Bareiro A. 7. Pochettino T.	1. Ze Rafael (G) 2. Biel Potiguar 5. Victor Salvador 4. Diguinho 14. Max Oliveira 6. Eric 20. Jeffinho 7. Rogerio (C) 8. Caio 10. Cassio Halloween 19. Piaui
Substitutes
35. Bruninho 27. Caio Wesley 99. Kayke 4. Luan Freitas 38. Lucca Prior 19. Luquinhas 15. Magrao (G) 20. Matheus Rossetto 30. Roco T. 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G)	17. Alison 15. Bruno Menezes 38. Geferson (G) 13. Joao Pedro 18. Leandrinho 9. Matheus Lima 16. Tafinha 23. Uchoa 3. Wagner Vidal 12. Ytalo (G) 21. Ze Oliveira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Diguinho ⚽, Biel Potiguar (A),
24', Biel Potiguar 🟨,
24', Mailton 🟨,
27', Diguinho 🟨,
30', Diguinho 🟥,
32', 1 - 1, Bareiro A. (Penalty Awarded),
33', Bareiro A. 🟨,
45+2', Pochettino T. 🟨,
45+7', Caio 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cardona T. ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
46', Matheus Lima ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
60', Rodrigo ↓, Ryan ↑,
71', Ze Rafael 🟨,
74', Wagner Vidal 🟨,
77', Ryan 🟨,
80', Biel Potiguar ↓, Alison ↑,
80', Moises ↓, Kayke ↑,
87', Tiaguinho ↓, Ze Oliveira ↑,
88', Caio ↓, Bruno Menezes ↑,
90+1', Lucas Sasha ↓, Luquinhas ↑,
90+1', Luquinhas 🟨,

Preview

Fortaleza has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Iguatu has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Fortaleza is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Fortaleza will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 2.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
26.01.26	Fortaleza - Floresta	1:0 ✺
22.01.26	Horizonte - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Fortaleza - Maracanã	1:0 ✺
15.01.26	Fortaleza - Quixadá	4:0 ✺
11.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWWT
- AD Iguatu
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
27.01.26	Iguatu - Horizonte	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Floresta - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Ceará - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Iguatu - Tirol	0:0 ✺
08.01.26	Iguatu - Maranguape	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
31.01.24	Fortaleza - Iguatu	3:1
14.01.23	Fortaleza - Iguatu	2:0
01.03.18	Fortaleza - Iguatu	2:0
25.01.18	Fortaleza - Iguatu	3:1

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