Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 26

Date: 2 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Suriname	SCCN
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fortaleza		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.63	2.88	3	Watch
	2.62	2.88	2.92
	2.76	2.99	3.06
	3.57	2.59	2.52	Watch
	2.7	2.96	3.09	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.7)	2.9 ↓ (3.1)	2.88 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
33.8%

Draw
33%

São Paulo
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

30.3%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

30%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Fortaleza - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). São Paulo will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 4% – 71%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - São Paulo (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Fortaleza (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - São Paulo (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fortaleza will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 4 - 66.7%). São Paulo (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Brenno (G) 33. Britez E. 34. Gazal 3. Avila G. 16. Diogo Barbosa 5. Pereira M. 88. Lucas Sasha 91. Lucas Crispim 22. Yago Pikachu (C) 18. Deyverson 80. Herrera J.	23. Rafael (G) 43. Felipe Negrucci 16. Luiz Gustavo 35. Sabino 6. Soares C. 21. Bobadilla D. 29. Pablo Maia 15. Rodriguinho 18. Wendell 14. Tapia G. 77. Rigoni E.
Substitutes
27. Bareiro A. 26. Breno Lopes 10. Guzman Y. 13. Kuscevic B. 23. Leite H. (G) 9. Lucero J. 11. Marinho 20. Matheus Rossetto 70. Pablo Roberto 30. Pierre 7. Pochettino T. 29. Rodrigo	25. Alisson 13. Diaz E. 19. Dinenno J. 11. Ferreira 53. Isac 45. Lucca Marques 10. Luciano 22. Mailton 20. Marcos Antonio 8. Oscar 36. Patryck 50. Young (G)
Coaches
Palermo M.	Crespo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Tapia G. ⚽,
22', Rigoni E. 🟥,
45+4', Avila G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rodriguinho ↓, Diaz E. ↑,
46', Herrera J. ↓, Breno Lopes ↑,
46', Pereira M. ↓, Guzman Y. ↑,
59', Lucas Sasha 🟨,
62', Yago Pikachu ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
62', Lucas Crispim ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
68', Soares C. ↓, Mailton ↑,
73', Deyverson ↓, Marinho ↑,
77', Tapia G. ↓, Luciano ↑,
78', Wendell ↓, Alisson ↑,
85', 0 - 2, Luciano ⚽, Diaz E. (A),
87', Pochettino T. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3.

Recent performances by Fortaleza have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

São Paulo is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fortaleza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco (Yellow Cards) Mancuso E. (Yellow Cards) Tinga (Groin Injury)

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Ferraresi N. (Inactive) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luan Silva (Inactive) Marcos Antonio (Inactive) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Yellow Cards) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Allanzinho (Inactive) Benevenuto (Hamstring Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pablo Roberto (Inactive)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Toloi R. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:20. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.83%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
27.09.25	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Palmeiras - Fortaleza	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Internacional RS - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Fortaleza - Mirassol	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLL
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
29.09.25	São Paulo - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.09.25	São Paulo - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.25	Santos - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.09.25	LDU Quito - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.09.25	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
02.05.25	São Paulo - Fortaleza	0:0
27.07.24	Fortaleza - São Paulo	1:0
13.04.24	São Paulo - Fortaleza	1:2
20.09.23	São Paulo - Fortaleza	1:2
11.05.23	Fortaleza - São Paulo	0:0
28.08.22	São Paulo - Fortaleza	0:1
08.05.22	Fortaleza - São Paulo	1:1

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