Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 21

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Fortaleza		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	3	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.95
	2.48	3.05	2.92
	2.54	3.21	3.1
	6.63	3.42	1.61	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.3
	2.48	3.24	3.03	Watch
	2.11	3.2	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.1)	3.2 (3.2)	2.95 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
34.6%

Draw
31.4%

Mirassol
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

29.3%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

29.8%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortaleza's form might have worsened.

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mirassol's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fortaleza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mirassol, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	45.5%	54.5%

Fortaleza - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 10%). Mirassol (votes: 4 - 40%). Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Mirassol (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Mirassol (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Leite H. (G) 14. Mancuso E. 3. Avila G. 39. Gustavo Mancha 6. Bruno Pacheco 5. Pereira M. 88. Lucas Sasha (C) 70. Pablo Roberto 38. Lucca Prior 19. Allanzinho 27. Bareiro A.	22. Walter (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 34. Joao Victor 3. Jemmes 6. Reinaldo 8. Danielzinho (C) 25. Neto Moura 27. Jose Aldo 11. Negueba 91. Chico 95. Edson Carioca
Substitutes
16. Diogo Barbosa 28. Guilherme C. d. S. 1. Joao Ricardo (G) 9. Lucero J. 11. Marinho 20. Matheus Rossetto 30. Pierre 7. Pochettino T. 2. Tinga 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 36. Weverson 22. Yago Pikachu	23. Alex Muralha (G) 96. Carlos Eduardo 10. Chico Kim 17. Cristian Renato 20. Daniel Borges 44. Gabriel 4. Luiz Otavio 99. Maceio 18. Matheus Bianqui 5. Roni 90. Thomazella (G) 41. Yago Felipe
Coaches
Alves R.	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Edson Carioca ⚽,
21', Bareiro A. (Pen),
25', Lucas Ramon 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pablo Roberto ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
62', Bareiro A. 🟨,
63', Lucas Sasha ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
68', Chico ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
68', Jose Aldo ↓, Chico Kim ↑,
74', Bruno Pacheco ↓, Weverson ↑,
74', Bareiro A. ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
75', Negueba ↓, Yago Felipe ↑,
75', Edson Carioca ↓, Cristian Renato ↑,
79', Allanzinho ↓, Marinho ↑,
87', Neto Moura ↓, Roni ↑,
88', Joao Victor 🟨,
88', Yago Pikachu 🟨,
90+1', Pereira M. 🟨,
90+4', Marinho 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

Recent form of Fortaleza has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Mirassol has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Andrade K. (Yellow Cards) Brenno (Finger Injury) Breno Lopes (Yellow Cards) Britez E. (Yellow Cards) Kuscevic B. (Inactive) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pereira M. (Inactive) Pierre (Inactive) Pochettino T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mirassol: Da Silva (Injury) PH (Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Joao Ricardo (Finger Injury)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Matheus Sales (Injury) Rafa Silva (Thigh Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fortaleza won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.65%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Copa Libertadores
19.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Fluminense - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Fortaleza - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	0:5 ✺
03.08.25	Corinthians - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLTLT
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
18.08.25	Mirassol - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Flamengo - Mirassol	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Mirassol - Vasco da Gama	3:2 ✺
26.07.25	Mirassol - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
23.07.25	Ceará - Mirassol	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Mirassol - Fortaleza	1:1

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