Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 4

Date: 24 May 2023, Wednesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV


	Fortaleza		San Lorenzo

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.75	5.75	Watch
	1.65	3.5	5.75
	1.67	3.5	5.5
	1.67	3.58	5.82
	1.6	3.3	5.8
	1.63	3.44	6.4	Watch
	1.64	3.55	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.9)	3.52 ↑ (3.25)	5.77 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
57.1%

Draw
26.6%

San Lorenzo
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

28.4%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

28.1%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fortaleza's performance.

San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Lorenzo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fortaleza that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Lorenzo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	0%	18.2%

Fortaleza - San Lorenzo Predictions

Users Predictions: Fortaleza will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Fortaleza is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

San Lorenzo is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

San Lorenzo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Fortaleza have a series of guest games.

In this match Fortaleza is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Fortaleza won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
20.05.23	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.05.23	Palmeiras - Fortaleza	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.05.23	Grêmio - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
11.05.23	Fortaleza - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
08.05.23	Corinthians - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTTT
- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.05.23	San Lorenzo - Instituto Córdoba	2:0 ✺
13.05.23	Banfield - San Lorenzo	1:2 ✺
08.05.23	San Lorenzo - Defensa y Justicia	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.05.23	Palestino - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.04.23	Vélez Sársfield - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
20.04.23	San Lorenzo - Fortaleza	0:2

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