Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 14

Date: 29 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)


	Grêmio		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.1	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3.3
	1.95	3.3	3.9
	1.98	3.47	4.22
	1.27	5.28	11.76	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.3
	1.98	3.4	4.1	Watch
	2.25	3.25	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.28)	3.56 ↑ (3.26)	4.74 ↑ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
50.8%

Draw
28.1%

Fortaleza
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

28.9%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

28.3%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio's performance.

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortaleza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grêmio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	16.7%	5.6%

Grêmio - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 13 - 86.7%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 69.5% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Grêmio (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Grêmio (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2 - Grêmio (8.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Grêmio will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 13 - 92.9%). Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tiago Volpi (G) 53. Gustavo Martins 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann (C) 23. Marlon 17. Dodi 20. Villasanti M. 65. Freitas dos Santos R. 47. Alysson 22. Braithwaite M. 99. Olivera C.	15. Magrao (G) 14. Mancuso E. 13. Kuscevic B. (C) 3. Avila G. 6. Bruno Pacheco 88. Lucas Sasha 5. Pereira M. 38. Lucca Prior 26. Breno Lopes 18. Deyverson 80. Herrera J.
Substitutes
80. Alex Santana 9. Amuzu F. 16. Aravena A. 15. Camilo Reijers 10. Cristaldo F. 8. Edenilson 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 40. Jardiel 21. Jemerson 2. Joao Lucas 25. Lucas Esteves 7. Pavon C.	27. Bareiro A. 16. Diogo Barbosa 8. Emmanuel Martinez 39. Gustavo Mancha 9. Lucero J. 11. Marinho 20. Matheus Rossetto 28. Ryan Guilherme 2. Tinga 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 22. Yago Pikachu 17. Ze Welison
Coaches
Mano Menezes	Alves R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', Magrao 🟨,
12', 1 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
17', 2 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
18', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
24', 2 - 1, Deyverson ⚽,
45+4', Breno Lopes 🟨,
45+6', Alysson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Gustavo Martins ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
56', Deyverson 🟨,
62', Herrera J. ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
62', Bruno Pacheco ↓, Diogo Barbosa ↑,
66', Freitas dos Santos R. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
67', Lucca Prior 🟨,
74', Marinho 🟨,
76', Lucca Prior ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
83', Alysson ↓, Edenilson ↑,
85', Mancuso E. ↓, Emmanuel Martinez ↑,
85', Deyverson ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
87', Olivera C. 🟨,
88', Marlon 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 1.

Grêmio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fortaleza is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Grêmio will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.25	Palmeiras - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.07.25	Grêmio - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.07.25	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.07.25	Alianza Lima - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.07.25	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTTLL
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.25	Fortaleza - Red Bull Bragantino	3:1 ✺
19.07.25	Fortaleza - Bahia	1:1 ✺
13.07.25	Fortaleza - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.07.25	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.06.25	Fortaleza - Santos	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.10.24	Grêmio - Fortaleza	3:1
19.06.24	Fortaleza - Grêmio	1:0
30.09.23	Fortaleza - Grêmio	1:1
14.05.23	Grêmio - Fortaleza	0:0
13.10.21	Fortaleza - Grêmio	1:0
27.06.21	Grêmio - Fortaleza	0:0
09.01.21	Fortaleza - Grêmio	0:0

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