Match Info

Date: 6 March 2022, Sunday


	Fortuna Düsseldorf		Ingolstadt

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.75	5	Watch
	1.66	3.9	5	Watch
	1.62	3.75	5.6
	1.65	3.9	4.8
	1.7	3.88	5.44
	1.6	3.75	5.25	Watch
	1.65	4.05	5.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.78)	3.85 ↑ (3.66)	5.17 ↑ (4.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortuna Düsseldorf
57.2%

Draw
24.5%

Ingolstadt
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

25.4%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.3%

20.3%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortuna Düsseldorf has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Ingolstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Düsseldorf than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fortuna Düsseldorf, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Fortuna Düsseldorf - Ingolstadt Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga).

Fortuna has the most likely position - 13 (14.26%), has project points - 42, has currently - 27, has a very small chance of relegated (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Ingolstadt has the most likely position - 18 (48.19%), has project points - 26, has currently - 15, has a very good chance of relegated (96%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has quality 31, small importance 17, small match rating 24. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fortuna won 3.

Fortuna is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Ingolstadt is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ingolstadt could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fortuna is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Fortuna won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Fortuna won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortuna Düsseldorf
German 2 Bundesliga
27.02.22	Jahn Regensburg - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:0 ✺
20.02.22	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
13.02.22	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Schalke 04	2:1 ✺
06.02.22	Holstein Kiel - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
27.01.22	Bochum - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 TWWLW
- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 2 Bundesliga
26.02.22	Ingolstadt - St. Pauli	1:3 ✺
19.02.22	Werder Bremen - Ingolstadt	1:1 ✺
13.02.22	Ingolstadt - Sandhausen	0:0 ✺
04.02.22	Nürnberg - Ingolstadt	0:5 ✺
22.01.22	Ingolstadt - Darmstadt	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
25.09.21	Ingolstadt - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:2
German DFB Pokal
12.09.20	Ingolstadt - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:1
German 2 Bundesliga
22.04.18	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Ingolstadt	3:0
19.11.17	Ingolstadt - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:0
17.04.15	Ingolstadt - Fortuna Düsseldorf	3:2
31.10.14	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Ingolstadt	0:0
28.03.14	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Ingolstadt	0:0

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