Match Info

National League - Round 11

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Mill Farm (Wesham)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	DAZN National League


	Fylde		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.9	2.8
	2.20	3.60	2.55
	2.25	3.65	2.65
	2.31	3.99	2.77
	2.34	3.91	2.59	Watch
	2.25	3.9	2.65
	2.3	4.22	2.63
	2.27	3.75	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.75)	3.87 ↑ (3.65)	2.67 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fylde
41.2%

Draw
24%

Carlisle United
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

25.1%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

25.1%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fylde has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fylde's performance.

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlisle United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fylde than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fylde that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlisle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Fylde - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Fylde will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Carlisle will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jones Z. (G) 29. Drewe A. 15. Lancaster W. 17. Whelan C. (C) 3. Broad H. 6. Merrie C. 7. Thomas L. 8. Whelan T. 4. Mitchell E. 10. Mayor D. 28. Matthews Lewis M.	1. Desbois A. (G) 17. Duru L. 5. Feeney M. (C) 15. Nicholson B. 18. Ellis J. 6. Azeez M. 30. Jenks T. 22. Williams J. 4. Bunker H. 10. Linney R. 9. Kelly G.
Substitutes
25. Boyes P. (G) 26. Butterfield L. 19. Main C. 22. Morris J. 14. Olley G. 5. Taylor M. 18. Upton T.	7. Ajiboye D. 31. Anderson T. 12. Galvin R. 16. Mair A. (G) 2. Richardson K. 20. Wearne S. 8. Whelan C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Whelan C. 🟨,
28', Feeney M. 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, Ellis J. ⚽,
41', Ellis J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Linney R. 🟨,
58', Matthews Lewis M. ↓, Main C. ↑,
59', Mayor D. ↓, Olley G. ↑,
66', Kelly G. ↓, Wearne S. ↑,
66', Jenks T. ↓, Ajiboye D. ↑,
67', Merrie C. ↓, Butterfield L. ↑,
67', Mitchell E. ↓, Upton T. ↑,
77', Thomas L. ↓, Morris J. ↑,
78', 0 - 2, Linney R. ⚽, Ajiboye D. (A),
79', Azeez M. ↓, Richardson K. ↑,
79', Williams J. ↓, Galvin R. ↑,
84', Ellis J. ↓, Whelan C. ↑,

Preview

Fylde is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Carlisle has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Fylde has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:3 (averaging 0:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Fylde against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 0:3 goals (averaging 0:1.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Fylde - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 33.3%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Fylde
English National League
26.09.26	Boston United - Fylde	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Fylde - Altrincham	1:2 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Harrogate Town - Fylde	1:2 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Yeovil Town - Fylde	1:4 ✺
05.09.26	Fylde - Worthing	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WLWWT
- Carlisle United
English National League
26.09.26	Carlisle United - Woking	2:5 ✺
19.09.26	Eastleigh - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
English National League North
15.09.26	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Carlisle United - Southend United	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Boreham Wood - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
19.07.25	Fylde - Carlisle United	0:2
21.07.18	Fylde - Carlisle United	0:1

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