Match Info

National League - Round 8

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	20:45	DAZN
Argentina	15:45	DAZN
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Bolivia	14:45	DAZN
Brazil	15:45	DAZN Brasil
Bulgaria	21:45	DAZN
Canada	14:45	DAZN Canada
Croatia	20:45	DAZN
Cyprus	21:45	DAZN
Czech Republic	20:45	DAZN
Denmark	20:45	DAZN
Ecuador	13:45	DAZN
Finland	21:45	DAZN
France	20:45	DAZN France
Germany	20:45	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	21:45	DAZN
Hungary	20:45	DAZN
Italy	20:45	DAZN Italia
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Latvia	21:45	DAZN
Lithuania	21:45	DAZN
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
North Macedonia	20:45	DAZN
Paraguay	14:45	DAZN
Poland	20:45	DAZN
Portugal	19:45	DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	21:45	DAZN
Slovenia	20:45	DAZN
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:45	DAZN
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	02:45	DAZN
Turkey	21:45	DAZN Turkiye
United Kingdom	19:45	DAZN
Uruguay	15:45	DAZN
Usa	14:45	DAZN USA
Venezuela	14:45	DAZN
International	18:45	DAZN National League


	Carlisle United		Forest Green Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.7	3.4
	1.93	3.50	3.10
	1.95	3.6	3.3
	1.99	3.94	3.53
	1.94	3.96	3.32	Watch
	1.97	3.7	3.45
	1.94	3.76	3.46
	1.97	3.7	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.1)	3.73 ↑ (3.5)	3.36 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
47.5%

Draw
24.8%

Forest Green Rovers
27.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.7%

26.2%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

25.8%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Forest Green Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: Carlisle United will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Desbois A. (G) 12. Galvin R. 18. Ellis J. 5. Feeney M. (C) 15. Nicholson B. 30. Jenks T. 4. Bunker H. 6. Azeez M. 19. Obiero M. 7. Ajiboye D. 9. Kelly G.	1. Ross E. (G) 29. Abrefa K. 26. Mabete F. 15. Kircough G. 27. Sass F. 6. Campbell T. 4. Clarke J. 7. McAllister K. (C) 25. Kelly K. 20. Etaluku S. 10. Rees R.
Substitutes
17. Duru L. 3. Harper C. 10. Linney R. 11. Luamba J. 16. Mair A. (G) 20. Wearne S. 22. Williams J.	17. Ewing O. 9. Fearon P. 8. Haughton N. 18. Ifeanyi B. 12. McNicholas L. (G) 14. Patrick O. 2. Pemberton T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Kelly K. ⚽, Clarke J. (A),
14', Abrefa K. 🟨,
27', Nicholson B. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Obiero M. ⚽,
33', Rees R. ↓, Patrick O. ↑,
43', Jenks T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Ellis J. ↓, Duru L. ↑,
58', Ajiboye D. ↓, Luamba J. ↑,
67', Sass F. 🟨,
70', Bunker H. ↓, Wearne S. ↑,
70', Obiero M. ↓, Linney R. ↑,
70', McAllister K. ↓, Ifeanyi B. ↑,
71', Kelly K. ↓, Fearon P. ↑,
79', Jenks T. ↓, Harper C. ↑,
82', Etaluku S. ↓, Ewing O. ↑,
82', Sass F. ↓, Pemberton T. ↑,
85', Feeney M. 🟨,
90+2', Ewing O. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Carlisle will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:17. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlisle won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.1:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Carlisle United - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.7%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
12.09.26	Carlisle United - Southend United	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Boreham Wood - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Carlisle United - Scunthorpe United	4:2 ✺
28.08.26	Wealdstone - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Carlisle United - Hornchurch	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TLWTW
- Forest Green Rovers
English National League
12.09.26	Forest Green Rovers - Gateshead	4:0 ✺
05.09.26	Hornchurch - Forest Green Rovers	0:1 ✺
English National League North
31.08.26	Forest Green Rovers - Altrincham	1:2 ✺
28.08.26	Fylde - Forest Green Rovers	2:0 ✺
English National League
22.08.26	Forest Green Rovers - Boreham Wood	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
14.02.26	Forest Green Rovers - Carlisle United	1:3
18.10.25	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	4:2
English League Two
22.01.22	Forest Green Rovers - Carlisle United	3:0
02.10.21	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	0:2
02.02.21	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	1:2
19.12.20	Forest Green Rovers - Carlisle United	1:0
28.01.20	Forest Green Rovers - Carlisle United	1:4

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