Match Info

National League - Round 8

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	DAZN
Argentina	DAZN
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	DAZN
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Bulgaria	DAZN
Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	DAZN
Cyprus	DAZN
Czech-republic	DAZN
Denmark	DAZN
Ecuador	DAZN
Finland	DAZN
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	DAZN
Hungary	DAZN
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Latvia	DAZN
Lithuania	DAZN
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	DAZN
Paraguay	DAZN
Poland	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	DAZN
Slovenia	DAZN
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	DAZN
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
Turkey	DAZN Turkiye
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA
Venezuela	DAZN
World	DAZN National League


	Carlisle United		Forest Green Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.7	3.4
	1.93	3.50	3.10
	1.95	3.6	3.3
	1.99	3.94	3.53
	1.94	3.96	3.32	Watch
	1.97	3.7	3.45
	1.94	3.76	3.46
	1.97	3.7	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.1)	3.73 ↑ (3.5)	3.36 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
47.5%

Draw
24.8%

Forest Green Rovers
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

26.2%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

25.8%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Forest Green Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: Carlisle United will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Desbois A. (G) 12. Galvin R. 18. Ellis J. 5. Feeney M. (C) 15. Nicholson B. 30. Jenks T. 4. Bunker H. 6. Azeez M. 19. Obiero M. 7. Ajiboye D. 9. Kelly G.	1. Ross E. (G) 29. Abrefa K. 26. Mabete F. 15. Kircough G. 27. Sass F. 6. Campbell T. 4. Clarke J. 7. McAllister K. (C) 25. Kelly K. 20. Etaluku S. 10. Rees R.
Substitutes
17. Duru L. 3. Harper C. 10. Linney R. 11. Luamba J. 16. Mair A. (G) 20. Wearne S. 22. Williams J.	17. Ewing O. 9. Fearon P. 8. Haughton N. 18. Ifeanyi B. 12. McNicholas L. (G) 14. Patrick O. 2. Pemberton T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Kelly K. ⚽, Clarke J. (A),
14', Abrefa K. 🟨,
27', Nicholson B. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Obiero M. ⚽,
33', Rees R. ↓, Patrick O. ↑,
43', Jenks T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Ellis J. ↓, Duru L. ↑,
58', Ajiboye D. ↓, Luamba J. ↑,
67', Sass F. 🟨,
70', Bunker H. ↓, Wearne S. ↑,
70', Obiero M. ↓, Linney R. ↑,
70', McAllister K. ↓, Ifeanyi B. ↑,
71', Kelly K. ↓, Fearon P. ↑,
79', Jenks T. ↓, Harper C. ↑,
82', Etaluku S. ↓, Ewing O. ↑,
82', Sass F. ↓, Pemberton T. ↑,
85', Feeney M. 🟨,
90+2', Ewing O. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Carlisle will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:17. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlisle won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.1:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Carlisle United - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.7%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Forest Green Rovers - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 30.09%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
12.09.26	Carlisle United - Southend United	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Boreham Wood - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Carlisle United - Scunthorpe United	4:2 ✺
28.08.26	Wealdstone - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Carlisle United - Hornchurch	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TLWTW
- Forest Green Rovers
English National League
12.09.26	Forest Green Rovers - Gateshead	4:0 ✺
05.09.26	Hornchurch - Forest Green Rovers	0:1 ✺
English National League North
31.08.26	Forest Green Rovers - Altrincham	1:2 ✺
28.08.26	Fylde - Forest Green Rovers	2:0 ✺
English National League
22.08.26	Forest Green Rovers - Boreham Wood	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
14.02.26	Forest Green Rovers - Carlisle United	1:3
18.10.25	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	4:2
English League Two
22.01.22	Forest Green Rovers - Carlisle United	3:0
02.10.21	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	0:2
02.02.21	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	1:2
19.12.20	Forest Green Rovers - Carlisle United	1:0
28.01.20	Forest Green Rovers - Carlisle United	1:4

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