Match Info

National League - Round 9

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Silverlake Stadium (Eastleigh)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	DAZN National League


	Eastleigh		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	3.9	4.1	1.67
	3.90	3.80	1.66
	3.9	3.95	1.72
	4.29	4.34	1.72
	3.88	4.21	1.74	Watch
	4.2	4.25	1.66
	4.13	4	1.63
	3.9	4.1	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.01 ↑ (3.8)	4.09 ↑ (3.78)	1.69 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Eastleigh
23%

Draw
22.5%

Carlisle United
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24%

24.2%

51.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.6%

23.8%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Eastleigh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eastleigh than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Eastleigh - Carlisle United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
15. Jeffries J. (G) 14. Akoto N. 6. Eweka T. 18. Dobson-Ventura T. 7. Dickov M. 4. Sidwell H. 24. Cousins J. (C) 11. Blair A. 8. Lundstram J. 27. Johnson R. 23. Ghandour H.	1. Desbois A. (G) 18. Ellis J. 17. Duru L. 3. Harper C. 12. Galvin R. 4. Bunker H. 6. Azeez M. 30. Jenks T. 19. Obiero M. 7. Ajiboye D. 9. Kelly G. (C)
Substitutes
5. Bakare I. 29. Bamey S. 9. Duku I. 10. Randall W. 17. Rankine D. 20. Searle J. (G) 30. Underhill C.	11. Luamba J. 16. Mair A. (G) 33. Rafferty 2. Richardson K. 20. Wearne S. 8. Whelan C. 22. Williams J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', Akoto N. ↓, Rankine D. ↑,
45+1', 1 - 0, Blair A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ajiboye D. ↓, Luamba J. ↑,
46', Harper C. ↓, Wearne S. ↑,
60', Desbois A. 🟨,
65', Azeez M. 🟨,
71', Duru L. ↓, Williams J. ↑,
78', Ghandour H. ↓, Randall W. ↑,
81', Jenks T. ↓, Whelan C. ↑,
81', Ellis J. ↓, Richardson K. ↑,
89', Blair A. ↓, Bamey S. ↑,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14th and 15th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Eastleigh could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Carlisle carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Eastleigh has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Eastleigh against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23:20	3	17
17	Eastleigh	13	4	3	6	14:20	-6	15

Last Results with these Odds

Eastleigh - the odds 3.8 are the expected chance of winning is 24.04%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Carlisle United - the odds 1.77 are the expected chance of winning is 51.79%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Eastleigh FC
English National League North
15.09.26	Sutton United - Eastleigh	2:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Eastleigh - Boreham Wood	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Altrincham - Eastleigh	2:1 ✺
English National League North
31.08.26	Eastleigh - Aldershot Town	1:1 ✺
English National League
28.08.26	Hartlepool United - Eastleigh	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LTLTW
- Carlisle United
English National League North
15.09.26	Carlisle United - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
English National League
12.09.26	Carlisle United - Southend United	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Boreham Wood - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Carlisle United - Scunthorpe United	4:2 ✺
28.08.26	Wealdstone - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League
28.02.26	Eastleigh - Carlisle United	1:2
15.11.25	Carlisle United - Eastleigh	1:1

Eastleigh - Carlisle United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide