Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova (La Paz) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Honduras	15:00	Deportes TV


	Génesis PN		Estrella Roja de Danlí

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.40	3.10
	1.98	3.1	3.35
	2.04	3.23	3.2
	2.09	3.39	3.38	Watch
	2.04	3.05	3.15
	2.11	3.58	3.16
	2.02	3.2	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.78)	3.28 ↑ (3.15)	3.25 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Génesis PN
44.5%

Draw
27.6%

Estrella Roja de Danlí
27.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.3%

27.9%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

24%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Génesis PN has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Estrella Roja de Danlí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estrella Roja de Danlí's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Génesis PN than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrella Roja de Danlí than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Génesis PN - Estrella Roja de Danlí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Balanta R. A. (G) 9. Alderete E. 27. Figueroa J. 24. Fonseca C. 12. Gabriel Araujo 18. Lacayo J. 15. Maldonado E. 10. Martinez W. 13. Mosquera J. 6. Sander R. 2. Vargas A.	28. Garcia J. (G) 11. Bermudez S. 30. Calix C. 7. Duarte E. 10. Duron D. 23. Gomez E. 2. Juarez L. 4. Licona S. 18. Luna N. 15. Padilla J. 13. Rosales O.
Substitutes
29. Alvarado A. 26. Arzu Zapata C. I. 11. Felix B. 3. Galindo A. 44. Gamboa M. 8. Nieto J. 66. Perez K. 1. Rodriguez D. (G) 16. Sabillon F.	17. Avila A. 24. Benitez R. 12. Garcia M. 20. Gonzalez P. 19. Gutierrez J. 9. Lopez F. 6. Mayorquin R. 1. Moreira V. (G) 14. Munguia E. 3. Rizo E. 16. Rosales B. 8. Velasquez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Rosales O. ⚽,
16', Alderete E. ↓, Arzu Zapata C. I. ↑,
17', 1 - 1, Arzu Zapata C. I. ⚽,
26', 1 - 2, Rosales O. ⚽,
43', Luna N. (Penalty Awarded),
44', Arzu Zapata C. I. 🟨,
45', Garcia J. ↓, Moreira V. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', 🟨,
62', 🟨,
64', 🟨,
66', 🟨,
69', 🟨,
70', 🟨,
81', 🟨,
84', 🟨,
90', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+8', 🟥,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 7th and 10th).

Both teams have struggled for positive results in recent outings.

Estrella Roja may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Génesis for this game.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Estrella Roja	11	3	4	4	18:21	-3	13
9	Genesis	11	3	2	6	12:12	0	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Génesis Policía Nacional
Honduras Liga Nacional
10.10.26	Génesis PN - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Génesis PN - Olancho	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Motagua - Génesis PN	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Juticalpa - Génesis PN	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Génesis PN - CD Marathón	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTLWL
- Estrella Roja de Danlí
Honduras Liga Nacional
11.10.26	Estrella Roja de Danlí - Real España	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Choloma - Estrella Roja de Danlí	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Estrella Roja de Danlí - Platense	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	CD Marathón - Estrella Roja de Danlí	5:0 ✺
30.08.26	Estrella Roja de Danlí - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLTLT

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