Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles (Tegucigalpa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Motagua		Génesis PN

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.75	4.75
	1.55	3.6	4.9
	1.58	3.58	4.63
	1.63	3.89	4.98	Watch
	1.55	3.5	4.5
	1.58	3.68	5.08
	1.56	3.65	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.5)	3.66 ↓ (3.79)	4.81 ↓ (5.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motagua
57%

Draw
24.4%

Génesis PN
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.8%

23.7%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

23.2%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motagua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Génesis PN has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Génesis PN than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Motagua - Génesis PN Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Ortiz L. (G) 14. Barrios A. 3. Cacho P. 10. Gomez R. 36. Marinacci V. 35. Melendez C. (C) 8. Melendez D. 30. Miranda J. 16. Palma C. 34. Sacaza G. 26. Santamaria L.	31. Balanta R. A. (G) 9. Alderete E. 27. Figueroa J. 24. Fonseca C. 12. Gabriel Araujo 44. Gamboa M. 15. Maldonado E. (C) 33. Melendez D. 17. Nunez D. 6. Sander R. 2. Vargas A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Barrios A. ↓, Discua O. ↑,
46', Gomez R. ↓, Reyes A. ↑,
46', Sacaza G. ↓, Portillo J. ↑,
46', Melendez C. ↓, Macias J. ↑,
67', Palma C. ↓, De Olivera R. ↑,
70', Figueroa J. ↓, Felix B. ↑,
79', Macias J. 🟨,
80', 1 - 0, De Olivera R. ⚽,
90', Vargas A. 🟨,
90', Sander R. ↓, Martinez W. ↑,
90', Melendez D. ↓, Arzu Zapata C. I. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 4.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Génesis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Motagua is a strong favorite.

We predict that Motagua will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 37:13. (average 2.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Motagua won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:8. (average 2.6:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Motagua	8	4	1	3	11:8	3	13
5	Genesis	8	3	2	3	10:6	4	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Motagua
CONCACAF Central American Cup
09.09.26	Motagua - Alianza San Miguel	3:0 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
05.09.26	Atlético Independiente - Motagua	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Motagua - Olancho	2:1 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
25.08.26	Municipal - Motagua	1:1 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
21.08.26	Motagua - Lobos UPNFM	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTWTW
- Génesis Policía Nacional
Honduras Liga Nacional
06.09.26	Juticalpa - Génesis PN	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Génesis PN - CD Marathón	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Atlético Independiente - Génesis PN	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Génesis PN - Platense	3:0 ✺
01.08.26	Génesis PN - Choloma	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
18.05.26	Motagua - Génesis PN	2:1
03.05.26	Génesis PN - Motagua	1:1
05.04.26	Motagua - Génesis PN	3:1
11.02.26	Génesis PN - Motagua	0:5
04.10.25	Motagua - Génesis PN	4:3
26.07.25	Génesis PN - Motagua	2:1
10.05.25	Motagua - Génesis PN	5:1

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