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Current Win Probability
Motagua 57%
Draw 24.4%
Génesis PN 18.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
59.8%
23.7%
16.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
61.1%
23.2%
16.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Motagua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)
Génesis PN has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Génesis PN than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
Motagua - Génesis PN Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Ortiz L. (G) 14. Barrios A. 3. Cacho P. 10. Gomez R. 36. Marinacci V. 35. Melendez C. (C) 8. Melendez D. 30. Miranda J. 16. Palma C. 34. Sacaza G. 26. Santamaria L.
31. Balanta R. A. (G) 9. Alderete E. 27. Figueroa J. 24. Fonseca C. 12. Gabriel Araujo 44. Gamboa M. 15. Maldonado E. (C) 33. Melendez D. 17. Nunez D. 6. Sander R. 2. Vargas A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Barrios A. ↓, Discua O. ↑,
46', Gomez R. ↓, Reyes A. ↑,
46', Sacaza G. ↓, Portillo J. ↑,
46', Melendez C. ↓, Macias J. ↑,
67', Palma C. ↓, De Olivera R. ↑,
70', Figueroa J. ↓, Felix B. ↑,
79', Macias J. 🟨,
80', 1 - 0, De Olivera R. ⚽,
90', Vargas A. 🟨,
90', Sander R. ↓, Martinez W. ↑,
90', Melendez D. ↓, Arzu Zapata C. I. ↑,
Preview
The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals))
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 4.
Now, both teams are in good form.
Génesis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Motagua is a strong favorite.
We predict that Motagua will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.
In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 37:13. (average 2.3:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Motagua won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:8. (average 2.6:1).
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Ortiz L. (G) 
Gomez R. 
Balanta R. A. (G) 
Gabriel Araujo 
Gamboa M. 
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