Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Main - Round 17

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)

Referee: Farrugia P. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Gżira United		Marsaxlokk

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.2	3.05	2.1	Watch
	3.29	3.33	2.07	Watch
	3.3	2.9	2.1
	3.31	3.1	2.1
	3.25	3.1	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.6)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	2.07 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gżira United
27.5%

Draw
29.1%

Marsaxlokk
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

28.2%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

29.6%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gżira United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gżira United's form might have worsened.

Marsaxlokk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marsaxlokk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gżira United than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Gżira United - Marsaxlokk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Colombo E. (G) 5. Abela D. 9. Andre Carlos 57. Bonilla J. 6. Borg A. 13. Failla C. 10. Maxuell Samurai (C) 23. N’sa C. 14. Riascos L. 96. Stojanovic M. 30. Xuereb D.	1. Calleja Cremona M. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 11. Corbalan J. C. 17. Dodo 4. El Hasni O. 99. Majok A. 95. Marcelo Santos 6. Muscat N. (C) 33. Simkus D. 21. Vella J. 3. Weder
Substitutes
8. Borg B. 2. Cassar N. 28. Cassar N. 20. Galea K. (G) 25. Ghigo G. 4. Gove T. 7. Martinez S. 11. Previ A. 24. Roh S. 1. Sargent K. (G) 22. Van de Bovenkamp M.	14. Attard E. 18. Barbara A. 23. Caruana T. 8. Ghio J. 16. Karamitsios G. 26. Maniscalco M. 28. Mihana R. 5. Pepe E. 7. Portelli N. 9. Tsoumou J. 12. Vella D. (G)
Coaches
Abdilla D.	Potenza V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Maxuell Samurai ⚽,
30', 2 - 0, Maxuell Samurai ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Majok A. ↓, Tsoumou J. ↑,
46', Vella J. ↓, Mihana R. ↑,
53', Mihana R. 🟨,
61', El Hasni O. 🟨,
63', Marcelo Santos ↓, Portelli N. ↑,
68', Corbalan J. C. 🟨,
71', 3 - 0, Maxuell Samurai ⚽,
75', Simkus D. ↓, Attard E. ↑,
79', Xuereb D. ↓, Martinez S. ↑,
79', Maxuell Samurai ↓, Cassar N. ↑,
79', Bonilla J. ↓, Borg B. ↑,
86', Andre Carlos ↓, Van de Bovenkamp M. ↑,
90+1', Borg A. ↓, Previ A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gżira won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Marsaxlokk has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Gżira won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gżira won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marsaxlokk	6	3	2	1	11:9	2	11
11	Gzira	5	0	1	4	2:13	-11	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gżira United
Maltese Premier League
11.01.26	Gżira United - Żabbar St. Patrick	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Paola Hibernians - Gżira United	4:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
03.01.26	St. Andrews - Gżira United	0:2 ✺
Maltese Premier League
19.12.25	Gżira United - Tarxien Rainbows	2:1 ✺
11.12.25	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWWW
- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
11.01.26	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Marsaxlokk	0:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
03.01.26	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	1:0 ✺
Maltese Premier League
20.12.25	Valletta - Marsaxlokk	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Hamrun Spartans - Marsaxlokk	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
17.09.25	Marsaxlokk - Gżira United	2:0
21.02.25	Gżira United - Marsaxlokk	0:1
08.12.24	Gżira United - Marsaxlokk	0:0
18.08.24	Marsaxlokk - Gżira United	0:1
06.04.24	Marsaxlokk - Gżira United	1:1
03.12.23	Gżira United - Marsaxlokk	2:4
Maltese FA Trophy
25.04.23	Marsaxlokk - Gżira United	2:1 penalties

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