Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 8 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Hernando Siles (La Paz)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Peru	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter


	GVCD San José		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.6	2.6	Watch
	2.05	3.7	3.2
	2.45	3.6	2.6	Watch
	2.52	3.67	2.62
	2.51	3.73	2.6
	2.05	3.5	3.2
	2.48	3.6	2.61	Watch
	2.45	3.6	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (3.29)	3.63 ↓ (3.7)	2.75 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

GVCD San José
39.6%

Draw
26.1%

Fluminense
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

25.4%

46.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

25%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

GVCD San José has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in GVCD San José's performance.

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fluminense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for GVCD San José than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with GVCD San José that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fluminense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	0%	86.7%

GVCD San José - Fluminense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. GVCD San José (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Fluminense (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - GVCD San José (1.82) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - GVCD San José (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Fluminense (3.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. GVCD San José (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Fluminense (votes: 5 - 45.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Poveda B. (G) 2. Ramallo J. 33. Landa A. 5. Seimandi A. 22. Roca D. 16. Arismendi F. 12. Ribera J. 21. Bejarano J. 30. Vasquez F. 11. Lopez J. 17. Roca F.	98. Vitor Eudes (G) 23. Guga 26. Manoel 29. Thiago Santos 6. Rene 35. Hercules 5. Bernal F. 77. Paulo Baya 18. Lezcano R. 19. Lavega J. 90. Serna K.
Substitutes
9. Becerra R. 31. Bustos R. 20. Cabrera A. 14. Calero D. 10. Galindo S. 24. Mamani A. 25. Rivas R. (G) 6. Serrano L. 55. Vargas D. 32. Vides B. 3. Villamil J. 15. Villamil S.	44. Caio Amaral 40. Davi Schuindt 38. Freitas 50. Gustavo Ramalho (G) 37. Isaque Silva 25. Kelwin 66. Leo Jance 24. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 7. Renato Augusto 42. Thiago 55. Wallace Davi
Coaches
Villegas E.	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Arismendi F. 🟨,
45+3', Lavega J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lavega J. ↓, Renato Augusto ↑,
46', Ribera J. ↓, Galindo S. ↑,
46', Roca F. ↓, Becerra R. ↑,
66', Vasquez F. ↓, Calero D. ↑,
66', Bejarano J. ↓, Villamil S. ↑,
69', Lezcano R. ↓, Isaque Silva ↑,
70', 1 - 0, Calero D. ⚽,
79', Hercules ↓, Kelwin ↑,
87', Lopez J. ↓, Vargas D. ↑,

Preview

GVCD San José has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Fluminense has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, GVCD San José won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GVCD San José
Bolivian Division Profesional
04.05.25	Blooming - GVCD San José	5:1 ✺
Bolivian Copa Pacena
29.04.25	GVCD San José - San Antonio Bulo Bulo	2:2 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
26.04.25	GVCD San José - ABB	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	GVCD San José - Once Caldas	2:3 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
19.04.25	Always Ready - GVCD San José	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LTTLL
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Fluminense - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	Fluminense - Aparecidense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Unión Española - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Fluminense - GVCD San José	5:0

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