Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 5 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 7, Pickx+ Sports 7
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	HBO Max
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 3
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 7
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Japan	Wowow Cinema
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	ART Sport 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, FOX One
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Canal+ Extra 6
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-africa	SuperSport Action
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 9
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 8
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	On Golf, ON Plus


	Ajax		Galatasaray

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.75	2.05
	3.3	3.75	2.12
	3.5	3.72	2.11
	3.16	4.01	2.06	Watch
	3.67	3.9	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (3.16)	3.83 ↓ (4.01)	2.07 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
28.4%

Draw
25.1%

Galatasaray
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

23.7%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

23.4%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Galatasaray has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Galatasaray than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.2%	17.3%	61.5%

Ajax - Galatasaray Predictions

Users Predictions: 103 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 22 - 21.4%). Galatasaray will win (votes: 64 - 62.1%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 16.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Galatasaray: 52.7% – 71.5%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 34 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 3 - 8.8%). Galatasaray (votes: 22 - 64.7%). Tie (votes: 9 - 26.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Galatasaray (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 35 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 3 - 8.6%). Galatasaray (votes: 23 - 65.7%). Tie (votes: 9 - 25.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasveer R. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 5. Wijndal O. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 6. Regeer Y. 24. Mokio J. 11. Godts M. 25. Weghorst W. 10. Gloukh O.	1. Cakir U. (G) 90. Singo W. 6. Sanchez D. 42. Bardakci A. (C) 4. Jakobs I. 34. Torreira L. 99. Lemina M. 7. Sallai R. 8. Gabriel Sara 10. Sane L. 45. Osimhen V.
Substitutes
41. Alders G. 43. Bounida R. 17. Edvardsen O. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 4. Itakura K. 1. Jaros V. (G) 19. Konadu D. 16. McConnell J. 7. Moro R. 2. Rosa L.	23. Ayhan K. 3. Baltaci M. 30. Demir Y. 17. Elmali E. 19. Guvenc G. (G) 9. Icardi M. 18. Kutlu B. 21. Kutucu A. 12. Sen B. (G) 91. Unyay A. 53. Yilmaz B. A.
Coaches
Heitinga J.	Buruk O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Mokio J. 🟨,
38', Gaaei A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Wijndal O. ↓, Alders G. ↑,
46', Gabriel Sara ↓, Yilmaz B. A. ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Osimhen V. ⚽, Sane L. (A),
61', Heitinga J. 🟨,
66', 0 - 2, Osimhen V. (Pen),
70', Regeer Y. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
70', Godts M. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
75', Klaassen D. 🟨,
78', 0 - 3, Osimhen V. (Pen),
79', Mokio J. ↓, McConnell J. ↑,
81', Osimhen V. ↓, Icardi M. ↑,
85', McConnell J. 🟨,
86', Jakobs I. ↓, Elmali E. ↑,
86', Lemina M. ↓, Ayhan K. ↑,
89', Torreira L. ↓, Kutlu B. ↑,

Preview

Ajax has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Galatasaray is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Galatasaray has had a series of home games.

Galatasaray will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Groin Injury) Dolberg K. (Abdominal strain) Taylor K. (Red Card) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Galatasaray: Akgun Y. (Groin Injury) Gundogan I. (Calf Injury) Gurpuz G. (Inactive) Karatas K. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ajax won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
01.11.25	Ajax - Heerenveen	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Twente - Ajax	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Chelsea - Ajax	5:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.25	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TWLLT
- Galatasaray
Turkish Super League
01.11.25	Galatasaray - Trabzonspor	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Galatasaray - Göztepe	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Galatasaray - Bodø Glimt	3:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
18.10.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Galatasaray	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Galatasaray - Beşiktaş	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Ajax - Galatasaray	2:1
Antalya Cup
10.01.14	Galatasaray - Ajax	2:1

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