Match Info

Torneo Federal - Winners stage - Round 4

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Jose Maria Paz (Chivilcoy)


	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy		General San Martín de Formosa

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.10	4.50
	1.75	3.25	4.25
	1.83	3.00	4.82
	1.74	3.27	4.82	Watch
	1.81	2.75	4.75
	1.67	3.62	5.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.72)	3.17 ↓ (3.35)	4.72 ↑ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy
51.9%

Draw
28.8%

General San Martín de Formosa
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

26.8%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

29.9%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

General San Martín de Formosa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for General San Martín de Formosa than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dormisch N. (G) 4. Dauria M. 10. Ferreira P. 2. Flores F. 3. Gallo M. 8. Gutierrez M. 7. Medina R. 9. Morales E. 5. Pavone N. 6. Robatto V. 11. Salvaggio M. (C)	1. Humeler K. (G) 11. Alegre G. 5. Bobadilla M. 7. Ceratto L. 4. Finardi B. 3. Griego A. 6. Leiva D. 10. Nunez G. 2. Piris O. 9. Siergiejuk M. 8. Tapia R.
Substitutes
19. Almada L. 13. D'Amelio X. 17. Fernandez V. 14. Fiol F. 16. Guglielmo A. 12. Ilchischen N. (G) 20. Ortiz N. 15. Samaniego L. 18. Visser B.	18. Aquino A. 14. Bautista 20. Calo L. 13. De Leon S. 16. Illanes Machuca F. 15. Leguizamon M. 21. Lopez A. 19. Monin F. 12. Morichi P. (G) 17. Peralta B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 🟨,
5', 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Leiva D. ⚽,
33', 🟨,
40', 🟨,
45+3', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 🟨,
60', Nunez G. ↓, Calo L. ↑,
74', 🟥,
74', 1 - 1, Morales E. ⚽,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Play Offs: )).

In recent matches, Gimnasia Chivilcoy has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

San Martín Formosa is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

San Martín Formosa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gimnasia Chivilcoy is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Gimnasia Chivilcoy won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy
Argentinian Torneo Federal
12.08.26	9 de Julio - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	0:0 ✺
25.07.26	Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:2 ✺
12.07.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Concepción del Uruguay	0:0 ✺
05.07.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - El Linqueño	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTTTW
- General San Martín de Formosa
Argentinian Torneo Federal
12.08.26	General San Martín de Formosa - Sportivo Belgrano	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Douglas Haig - General San Martín de Formosa	1:4 ✺
02.08.26	General San Martín de Formosa - Sol de América de Formosa	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	General San Martín de Formosa - Bartolomé Mitre	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Sarmiento de La Banda - General San Martín de Formosa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
07.09.25	General San Martín de Formosa - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:0

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