Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 12

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio El Gigante del Norte (Salta)


	Gimnasia y Tiro		Agropecuario Argentino

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.75	3.6	Watch
	2.22	2.78	3.5	Watch
	2.35	2.86	3.79
	2.3	2.78	3.7	Watch
	2.3	2.63	3.5
	2.23	2.66	3.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.16)	2.74 ↑ (2.73)	3.62 ↓ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnasia y Tiro
40.7%

Draw
33.7%

Agropecuario Argentino
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

33.5%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

27.6%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnasia y Tiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Agropecuario Argentino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimnasia y Tiro than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gimnasia y Tiro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Agropecuario Argentino than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Gimnasia y Tiro - Agropecuario Argentino Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Papaleo J. (G) 4. Oviedo J. C. 2. Guanini M. 6. Diaz G. 3. Villarreal R. 5. Birge M. (C) 11. Montoya W. 8. Sivetti F. 10. Rinaldi N. 7. Rocca J. 9. Gordillo L.	1. Acosta L. (G) 4. Perez F. 2. Lecanda T. 6. Aguirre A. 3. Ramos M. 8. Aranda B. 5. Molina M. 7. Mosqueira R. 10. Castro R. 11. Ruiz Diaz D. 9. Barrera L.
Substitutes
18. Banega T. 16. Borquez T. 15. Capano J. 20. Contin N. 12. Cosentino F. (G) 14. Gordillo J. 17. Rodriguez P. A. 13. Tallura A. 19. Turletti J.	13. Aguirre E. 17. Blando B. 20. Cabello J. 18. Gagliardi A. 19. Heritier J. 15. Lemos D. 12. Salort G. (G) 14. Sanchez F. 16. Valdez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', Ramos M. ↓, Cabello J. ↑,
32', 1 - 0, Birge M. ⚽, Rinaldi N. (A),
38', 2 - 0, Guanini M. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 1, Mosqueira R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', Molina M. ↓, Gagliardi A. ↑,
59', Ruiz Diaz D. ↓, Valdez J. ↑,
59', Barrera L. ↓, Blando B. ↑,
65', Rinaldi N. ↓, Banega T. ↑,
83', 2 - 2, Valdez J. ⚽,
86', 2 - 3, Blando B. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 16).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Gimnasia y Tiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Gimnasia y Tiro has had a series of away games.

Gimnasia y Tiro might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Gimnasia y Tiro - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 42.32%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnasia y Tiro
Copa Argentina
30.04.26	Vélez Sársfield - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.26	Tristán Suárez - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Güemes	1:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
15.04.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:1 penalties ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
12.04.26	Chacarita Juniors - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLTWL
- Agropecuario Argentino
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.26	Agropecuario Argentino - San Martín de Tucumán	2:0 ✺
20.04.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Agropecuario Argentino	4:1 ✺
12.04.26	Agropecuario Argentino - Gimnasia Jujuy	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Agropecuario Argentino - Tristán Suárez	0:2 ✺
Copa Argentina
30.03.26	Unión Santa Fe - Agropecuario Argentino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLL

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