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Girona - Real Madrid: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 14
  • Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday
  • Location: Estadio Municipal de Montilivi (Girona)
  • Referee: De Burgos R. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Girona Real Madrid
    Girona Real Madrid
    1 X 2
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    (Initially)    		 7.15 ↑
    (7.01)    		 5.53 ↑
    (5.35)    		 1.38 ↓
    (1.39)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

    • The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Girona
    13.4%    		Draw
    17.3%    		Real Madrid
    69.3%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    13.6% 17.8% 68.5%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    13% 17.1% 71.5%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Girona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Girona than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    6.9% 4.6% 88.5%

    Girona - Real Madrid Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 1.25, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.5 - Real (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - Real (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (76 of 86 users predict this - 88.37%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 81.59% – 95.15%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (34 of 36 users predict this - 94.44%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 38 Selected Experts predict this event. Girona (votes: 2 - 5.3%). Real (votes: 36 - 94.7%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    13. ArgentinaGazzaniga P. (G)
      4. SpainMartinez A. (C)
      2. SpainRincon H.
    12. BrazilVitor Reis
    24. SpainMoreno A.
    18. MoroccoOunahi A.
    20. BelgiumWitsel A.
    23. SpainMartin I.
    15. UkraineTsygankov V.
    19. UkraineVanat V.
    21. SpainGil B.
    		  1. BelgiumCourtois T. (G)
    12. EnglandAlexander-Arnold T.
      3. BrazilEder Militao
    22. GermanyRudiger A.
    20. SpainGarcia F.
      8. UruguayValverde F. (C)
    14. FranceTchouameni A.
      5. EnglandBellingham J.
    15. TurkeyGuler A.
    10. FranceMbappe K.
      7. BrazilVinicius Junior
    Substitutes
    43. BulgariaAndreev A. (G)
    10. ColombiaAsprilla Y.
    44. SenegalBa P.
    16. SpainFrances A.
    28. SpainJordana G.
    29. GuineaKourouma L.
      1. CroatiaLivakovic D. (G)
      3. SpainRoca J.
      9. SpainRuiz A.
    		  6. FranceCamavinga E.
    18. SpainCarreras A.
    19. SpainCeballos D.
    21. MoroccoDiaz B.
      9. BrazilEndrick
    16. SpainGarcia G.
    13. UkraineLunin A. (G)
    30. ArgentinaMastantuono F.
    23. FranceMendy F.
    43. SpainMestre S. (G)
    11. BrazilRodrygo
    Coaches
         SpainMichel
    		     SpainAlonso X.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 0)
    • 42', Gazzaniga P. 🟨,
    • 45', 1 - 0, Ounahi A. ⚽, Tsygankov V. (A),
    • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
    • 46', Guler A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
    • 59', Ounahi A. 🟨,
    • 67', 1 - 1, Mbappe K. (Pen),
    • 72', Tsygankov V. ↓, Asprilla Y. ↑,
    • 72', Gil B. ↓, Roca J. ↑,
    • 72', Rincon H. ↓, Frances A. ↑,
    • 72', Tchouameni A. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
    • 74', Vanat V. 🟨,
    • 83', Vanat V. ↓, Kourouma L. ↑,
    • 83', Ounahi A. ↓, Ruiz A. ↑,
    • 90', Garcia F. ↓, Carreras A. ↑,
    • 90', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Garcia G. ↑,

    Preview

  • Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Girona won 1.
  • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
  • Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Recently, Real has had a series of away games.
  • In this match, Real is the undisputed favorite.
  • There will not play in Girona: Artero R. (Ankle Injury) Blind D. (Back Injury) Juan Carlos (Knee Injury) Krapyvtsov V. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lemar T. (Foot Injury) Lopez D. (Hamstring Injury) Portu (Knee Injury) Stuani C. (Calf Injury) van de Beek D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
  • There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Muscle Injury) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Huijsen D. (Muscle Injury)
  • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Girona won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:34. (average 1.3:2.8).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Girona won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:16. (average 1.3:2.7).

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Girona FC
    Spanish LaLiga
    23.11.25 Betis - Girona 1:1 ✺
    08.11.25 Girona - Deportivo Alavés 1:0 ✺
    31.10.25 Getafe - Girona 2:1 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    28.10.25 Constancia - Girona 2:3 ET ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    25.10.25 Girona - Real Oviedo 3:3 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10
    TWLWT
    - Real Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    26.11.25 Olympiacos Piraeus - Real Madrid 3:4 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    23.11.25 Elche - Real Madrid 2:2 ✺
    09.11.25 Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid 0:0 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    04.11.25 Liverpool - Real Madrid 1:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.25 Real Madrid - Valencia 4:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6
    WTTLW
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    23.02.25 Real Madrid - Girona 2:0
    07.12.24 Girona - Real Madrid 0:3
    10.02.24 Real Madrid - Girona 4:0
    30.09.23 Girona - Real Madrid 0:3
    25.04.23 Girona - Real Madrid 4:2
    30.10.22 Real Madrid - Girona 1:1
    17.02.19 Real Madrid - Girona 1:2
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Girona FC
    Spanish LaLiga2
    12.10.26 Tenerife - Girona ✺
    - Real Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    14.10.26 Roma - Real Madrid ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Real Madrid - Villarreal ✺

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