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Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 12
  • Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday
  • Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid
    Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid
    1 X 2
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    (Initially)    		 5.95 ↑
    (5.83)    		 4.7 ↓
    (4.72)    		 1.51 ↑
    (1.5)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

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    Current Win Probability

    Rayo Vallecano
    16.1%    		Draw
    20.4%    		Real Madrid
    63.5%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    16.3% 20.2% 63.5%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    15.9% 19.7% 65%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
  • The chances for Real Madrid have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    4.9% 6.9% 88.2%

    Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) ๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold Tip.
    • AH +0.5 - Rayo Vallecano (2.69) (votes: 5 - 100%) ๐Ÿฅˆ Silver Tip.
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH +1, 1st Half - Real (1.74) (votes: 6 - 100%) ๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold Tip.
    • DNB - Rayo Vallecano (4.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (89 of 101 users predict this - 88.12%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 81.81% โ€“ 94.43%. The data is statistically significant.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (38 of 39 users predict this - 97.44%) ๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 51 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 6 - 11.8%). Real (votes: 44 - 86.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    13. ArgentinaBatalla A. (G)
      2. RomaniaRatiu A.
    24. FranceLejeune F.
    32. SenegalMendy N.
      3. SpainChavarria P.
      6. SenegalCiss P.
    17. SpainLopez U.
      7. SpainPalazon I. (C)
      4. SpainDiaz P.
    18. SpainGarcia A.
    19. Spainde Frutos J.
    		  1. BelgiumCourtois T. (G)
      8. UruguayValverde F. (C)
    17. SpainAsencio R.
    24. SpainHuijsen D.
    18. SpainCarreras A.
    15. TurkeyGuler A.
      6. FranceCamavinga E.
    21. MoroccoDiaz B.
      5. EnglandBellingham J.
      7. BrazilVinicius Junior
    10. FranceMbappe K.
    Substitutes
      9. BrazilAlemao
    20. AlbaniaBalliu I.
    28. SpainBecerra S.
    10. SpainCamello S.
      1. SpainCardenas D. (G)
    15. SpainGumbau G.
    40. SpainMolina A. (G)
    22. UruguayPacha
    21. SpainPerez F.
      8. ArgentinaTrejo O.
    23. SpainValentin O.
    33. NetherlandsVertrouwd J.
    		  4. AustriaAlaba D.
    12. EnglandAlexander-Arnold T.
    19. SpainCeballos D.
      3. BrazilEder Militao
      9. BrazilEndrick
    20. SpainGarcia F.
    16. SpainGarcia G.
    13. UkraineLunin A. (G)
    23. FranceMendy F.
    43. SpainMestre S. (G)
    11. BrazilRodrygo
    Coaches
         SpainPerez I.
    		     SpainAlonso X.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 15', Ratiu A. 🟨,
    • 27', Diaz P. ↓, Pacha ↑,
    • 33', Garcia A. 🟨,
    • 36', Huijsen D. 🟨,
    • 44', Diaz B. 🟨,
    • 45+3', de Frutos J. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
    • 46', Huijsen D. ↓, Eder Militao ↑,
    • 71', Palazon I. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
    • 71', de Frutos J. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
    • 71', Diaz B. ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
    • 79', Camavinga E. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
    • 83', Garcia A. ↓, Alemao ↑,
    • 83', Valverde F. ↓, Alexander-Arnold T. ↑,
    • 83', Lopez U. ↓, Gumbau G. ↑,

    Preview

  • Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 0.
  • At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
  • Real may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • In this match, Real is the clear favorite.
  • There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Mendez D. (Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury)
  • There will not play in Real: Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Mastantuono F. (Groin Injury) Rudiger A. (Thigh Injury) Tchouameni A. (Muscle Injury)
  • There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Luiz Felipe (Hamstring Injury)
  • In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 18:47. (average 0.9:2.5).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:18. (average 1.2:1.8).

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Rayo Vallecano
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    06.11.25 Rayo Vallecano - Lech Poznaล„ 3:2 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.25 Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano 4:0 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    29.10.25 Yuncos - Rayo Vallecano 1:6 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    26.10.25 Rayo Vallecano - Deportivo Alavรฉs 1:0 ✺
    UEFA Europa Conference League
    23.10.25 Hรคcken - Rayo Vallecano 2:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4
    WLWWT
    - Real Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    04.11.25 Liverpool - Real Madrid 1:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.25 Real Madrid - Valencia 4:0 ✺
    26.10.25 Real Madrid - Barcelona 2:1 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    22.10.25 Real Madrid - Juventus 1:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    19.10.25 Getafe - Real Madrid 0:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4
    LWWWW
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    09.03.25 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 2:1
    14.12.24 Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid 3:3
    18.02.24 Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid 1:1
    05.11.23 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 0:0
    24.05.23 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 2:1
    07.11.22 Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid 3:2
    26.02.22 Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid 0:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Rayo Vallecano
    Spanish LaLiga
    24.10.26 Rayo Vallecano - Elche ✺
    - Real Madrid
    Spanish LaLiga
    25.10.26 Barcelona - Real Madrid ✺

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