Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 26 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium (Piraeus)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Olympiacos Piraeus		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.33	4.5	1.65
	4.85	4.75	1.62
	5.15	4.84	1.6
	6.90	5.09	1.41	Watch
	5.28	4.67	1.64
	4.75	4.75	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↓ (6.9)	4.77 ↓ (5.09)	1.58 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympiacos Piraeus
18.6%

Draw
20.3%

Real Madrid
61.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.8%

18.7%

67.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.1%

19.7%

71.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympiacos Piraeus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympiacos Piraeus than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olympiacos Piraeus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	5.8%	86.5%

Olympiacos Piraeus - Real Madrid Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Real (2.02) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1, 1st Half - Real (1.68) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Olympiacos (1.52) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DC - Olympiacos (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (90 of 103 users predict this - 87.38%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.97% – 93.79%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (44 of 49 users predict this - 89.8%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 56 Selected Experts predict this event. Olympiacos (votes: 6 - 10.7%). Real (votes: 49 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 1.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Tzolakis K. (G) 23. Rodinei 45. Retsos P. (C) 5. Pirola L. 3. Ortega F. 96. Mouzakitis C. 14. Garcia D. 56. Podence D. 22. Chiquinho 10. Martins G. 9. El Kaabi A.	13. Lunin A. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 17. Asencio R. 18. Carreras A. 23. Mendy F. 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 8. Valverde F. (C) 6. Camavinga E. 7. Vinicius Junior 10. Mbappe K.
Substitutes
4. Biancone G. 31. Botis N. (G) 20. Costinha 32. Hezze S. 6. Kalogeropoulos A. 8. Nascimento D. 70. Onyemaechi B. 80. Pnevmonidis S. 16. Scipioni L. 27. Strefezza G. 99. Taremi M. 11. Yaremchuk R.	5. Bellingham J. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 9. Endrick 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 29. Navarro Jimenez J. (G) 11. Rodrygo
Coaches
Mendilibar J. L.	Alonso X.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
8', 1 - 0, Chiquinho ⚽, El Kaabi A. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Vinicius Junior (A),
23', Camavinga E. 🟨,
24', 1 - 2, Mbappe K. ⚽, Guler A. (A),
28', Chiquinho ↓, Taremi M. ↑,
29', 1 - 3, Mbappe K. ⚽, Camavinga E. (A),
40', Ortega F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Garcia D. ↓, Hezze S. ↑,
46', Camavinga E. ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
52', 2 - 3, Taremi M. ⚽, Hezze S. (A),
56', Guler A. 🟨,
60', 2 - 4, Mbappe K. ⚽, Vinicius Junior (A),
61', Guler A. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
62', Pirola L. ↓, Biancone G. ↑,
71', Podence D. ↓, Strefezza G. ↑,
71', Rodinei ↓, Costinha ↑,
73', Asencio R. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
81', 3 - 4, El Kaabi A. ⚽, Strefezza G. (A),
90', Vinicius Junior ↓, Garcia F. ↑,

Preview

Olympiacos has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Real has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Olympiacos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Olympiacos has had a series of home games.

In this match, Real is the team to beat.

There will not play in Olympiacos: Angelakis K. (Inactive) Cabella R. (Inactive) Gustavo Mancha (Inactive) Paschalakis A. (Inactive) Vezo R. (Inactive) Yazici Y. (Inactive)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Muscle Injury) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Courtois T. (Illness) Eder Militao (Groin Injury) Huijsen D. (Muscle Injury) Mastantuono F. (Groin Injury) Rudiger A. (Thigh Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Olympiacos Piraeus
Greek Super League
22.11.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Atromitos Athens	3:0 ✺
09.11.25	AE Kifisia - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - PSV Eindhoven	1:1 ✺
Greek Super League
01.11.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Aris	2:1 ✺
Greek Cup
29.10.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Volos	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWTWW
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
23.11.25	Elche - Real Madrid	2:2 ✺
09.11.25	Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Liverpool - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.11.25	Real Madrid - Valencia	4:0 ✺
26.10.25	Real Madrid - Barcelona	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTLWW

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