Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 26 November 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium (Piraeus) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, Supersport Action
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 6
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 6, Pickx+ Sports 6, Play Sports Golf
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	ESPN 2
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay, Viaplay Sport News
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport, New World TV
Germany	21:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 2, MEGA
Haiti	15:00	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	20:00	SÝN Sport 3
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Iran	23:30	IRIB Varzesh
Israel	22:00	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	21:00	Sky Sport 256
Japan	05:00	Wowow Cinema
Kazakhstan	02:00	Qazsport
Kenya	23:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	ART Sport 3
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Canal+ Action
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 6
Mexico	14:00	Caliente TV, FOX One
Mongolia	04:00	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 5
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport Action
North Central America	—	ESPN Norte
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	06:00	TVWan Sports
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Philippines	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	CANAL+ 360
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 2
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport Action, SuperSport Football
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	23:00	Tabii Spor 2, Tabii
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 5, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus


	Olympiacos Piraeus		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.33	4.5	1.65
	4.85	4.75	1.62
	5.15	4.84	1.6
	6.90	5.09	1.41	Watch
	5.28	4.67	1.64
	4.75	4.75	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↓ (6.9)	4.77 ↓ (5.09)	1.58 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympiacos Piraeus
18.6%

Draw
20.3%

Real Madrid
61.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

13.8%

18.7%

67.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.1%

19.7%

71.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympiacos Piraeus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympiacos Piraeus than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olympiacos Piraeus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	5.8%	86.5%

Olympiacos Piraeus - Real Madrid Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Real (2.02) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1, 1st Half - Real (1.68) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Olympiacos (1.52) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DC - Olympiacos (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (90 of 103 users predict this - 87.38%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.97% – 93.79%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (44 of 49 users predict this - 89.8%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 56 Selected Experts predict this event. Olympiacos (votes: 6 - 10.7%). Real (votes: 49 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 1.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Tzolakis K. (G) 23. Rodinei 45. Retsos P. (C) 5. Pirola L. 3. Ortega F. 96. Mouzakitis C. 14. Garcia D. 56. Podence D. 22. Chiquinho 10. Martins G. 9. El Kaabi A.	13. Lunin A. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 17. Asencio R. 18. Carreras A. 23. Mendy F. 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 8. Valverde F. (C) 6. Camavinga E. 7. Vinicius Junior 10. Mbappe K.
Substitutes
4. Biancone G. 31. Botis N. (G) 20. Costinha 32. Hezze S. 6. Kalogeropoulos A. 8. Nascimento D. 70. Onyemaechi B. 80. Pnevmonidis S. 16. Scipioni L. 27. Strefezza G. 99. Taremi M. 11. Yaremchuk R.	5. Bellingham J. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 9. Endrick 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 29. Navarro Jimenez J. (G) 11. Rodrygo
Coaches
Mendilibar J. L.	Alonso X.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
8', 1 - 0, Chiquinho ⚽, El Kaabi A. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Vinicius Junior (A),
23', Camavinga E. 🟨,
24', 1 - 2, Mbappe K. ⚽, Guler A. (A),
28', Chiquinho ↓, Taremi M. ↑,
29', 1 - 3, Mbappe K. ⚽, Camavinga E. (A),
40', Ortega F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Garcia D. ↓, Hezze S. ↑,
46', Camavinga E. ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
52', 2 - 3, Taremi M. ⚽, Hezze S. (A),
56', Guler A. 🟨,
60', 2 - 4, Mbappe K. ⚽, Vinicius Junior (A),
61', Guler A. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
62', Pirola L. ↓, Biancone G. ↑,
71', Podence D. ↓, Strefezza G. ↑,
71', Rodinei ↓, Costinha ↑,
73', Asencio R. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
81', 3 - 4, El Kaabi A. ⚽, Strefezza G. (A),
90', Vinicius Junior ↓, Garcia F. ↑,

Preview

Olympiacos has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Real has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Olympiacos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Olympiacos has had a series of home games.

In this match, Real is the team to beat.

There will not play in Olympiacos: Angelakis K. (Inactive) Cabella R. (Inactive) Gustavo Mancha (Inactive) Paschalakis A. (Inactive) Vezo R. (Inactive) Yazici Y. (Inactive)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Muscle Injury) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Courtois T. (Illness) Eder Militao (Groin Injury) Huijsen D. (Muscle Injury) Mastantuono F. (Groin Injury) Rudiger A. (Thigh Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Olympiacos Piraeus
Greek Super League
22.11.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Atromitos Athens	3:0 ✺
09.11.25	AE Kifisia - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - PSV Eindhoven	1:1 ✺
Greek Super League
01.11.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Aris	2:1 ✺
Greek Cup
29.10.25	Olympiacos Piraeus - Volos	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWTWW
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
23.11.25	Elche - Real Madrid	2:2 ✺
09.11.25	Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Liverpool - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.11.25	Real Madrid - Valencia	4:0 ✺
26.10.25	Real Madrid - Barcelona	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTLWW

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