Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 4 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Anfield (Liverpool)

Referee: Kovacs I. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
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	Liverpool		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.8	2.7
	2.38	4	2.72
	2.4	3.95	2.84
	2.30	3.83	2.81	Watch
	2.44	4.1	2.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.3)	3.94 ↑ (3.83)	2.77 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liverpool
40.6%

Draw
24.5%

Real Madrid
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

24.8%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

27%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liverpool has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.6%	10.1%	63.3%

Liverpool - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 78 users predict this event. Liverpool will win (votes: 21 - 26.9%). Real will win (votes: 49 - 62.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 10.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 52.1% – 73.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 36 Selected Experts predict this event. Liverpool (votes: 9 - 25%). Real (votes: 23 - 63.9%). Tie (votes: 4 - 11.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 14 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH 0 - Real (2.05) (votes: 8 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Real (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Liverpool (3.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Liverpool (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 49 Selected Experts predict this event. Liverpool (votes: 13 - 26.5%). Real (votes: 32 - 65.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 8.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mamardashvili G. (G) 12. Bradley C. 5. Konate I. 4. van Dijk V. (C) 26. Robertson A. 8. Szoboszlai D. 38. Gravenberch R. 10. Mac Allister A. 11. Salah M. 22. Ekitike H. 7. Wirtz F.	1. Courtois T. (G) 8. Valverde F. (C) 3. Eder Militao 24. Huijsen D. 18. Carreras A. 15. Guler A. 6. Camavinga E. 14. Tchouameni A. 7. Vinicius Junior 5. Bellingham J. 10. Mbappe K.
Substitutes
14. Chiesa F. 3. Endo W. 18. Gakpo C. 2. Gomez J. 17. Jones C. 6. Kerkez M. 74. Misciur K. (G) 73. Ngumoha R. 28. Woodman F. (G)	12. Alexander-Arnold T. 17. Asencio R. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 9. Endrick 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 13. Lunin A. (G) 23. Mendy F. 11. Rodrygo
Coaches
Slot A.	Alonso X.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Vinicius Junior 🟨,
45+1', Huijsen D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Mac Allister A. 🟨,
60', Bellingham J. 🟨,
61', 1 - 0, Mac Allister A. ⚽, Szoboszlai D. (A),
69', Camavinga E. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
79', Mac Allister A. ↓, Jones C. ↑,
79', Ekitike H. ↓, Gakpo C. ↑,
81', Guler A. ↓, Alexander-Arnold T. ↑,
88', Robertson A. ↓, Kerkez M. ↑,
88', Wirtz F. ↓, Chiesa F. ↑,
90', Valverde F. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
90+5', Carreras A. 🟨,
90+6', Alonso X. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Liverpool won 1.

Liverpool has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Real may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Real has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Liverpool: Alisson (Groin Injury) Bajcetic S. (Hamstring Injury) Chambers L. (Back Injury) Frimpong J. (Hamstring Injury) Isak A. (Groin Injury) Leoni G. (Knee Injury) Scanlon C. (Hamstring Injury) Williams R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Foot Injury) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Mastantuono F. (Groin Injury) Rudiger A. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Liverpool: Jones C. (Knock)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Liverpool won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:17. (average 0.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Liverpool won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.8:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Liverpool FC
English Premier League
01.11.25	Liverpool - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
English League Cup
29.10.25	Liverpool - Crystal Palace	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
25.10.25	Brentford - Liverpool	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Liverpool	1:5 ✺
English Premier League
19.10.25	Liverpool - Manchester United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLWL
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
01.11.25	Real Madrid - Valencia	4:0 ✺
26.10.25	Real Madrid - Barcelona	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Real Madrid - Juventus	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
19.10.25	Getafe - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Real Madrid - Villarreal	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
27.11.24	Liverpool - Real Madrid	2:0
15.03.23	Real Madrid - Liverpool	1:0
21.02.23	Liverpool - Real Madrid	2:5
28.05.22	Liverpool - Real Madrid	0:1
14.04.21	Liverpool - Real Madrid	0:0
06.04.21	Real Madrid - Liverpool	3:1
26.05.18	Real Madrid - Liverpool	3:1

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