Match Info

LaLiga - Round 6

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero (Elche)

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, Startimes Am'mobi, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 1
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	Migu
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	DAZN, DirecTV Sports
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic
Finland	Disney+
France	DAZN France, Disney+
Georgia	Silk Sport 1, Silk Sport 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DAZN, DirecTV Sports, DSports 310
Usa	ESPN 2, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Zor TV
Venezuela	DAZN, DirecTV Sports, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 15, SCTV Online


	Elche		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	12	7.5	1.2	Watch
	9.50	7.50	1.24
	14.5	6.6	1.19	Watch
	14.5	7.7	1.21
	12.38	7.27	1.21	Watch
	14	7.45	1.2
	12.1	7.56	1.21	Watch
	13	8	1.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	12.75 ↑ (8.94)	7.45 ↑ (5.74)	1.21 ↓ (1.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elche
7.5%

Draw
12.9%

Real Madrid
79.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.6%

16.5%

72.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.5%

16.3%

73.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elche than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.3%	4.5%	93.2%

Elche - Real Madrid Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Real (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.76) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +2.5 - Elche (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

First Goalscorer - Kylian Mbappe (3.10) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

BTTS - Real Madrid & Yes (2.38) (votes: 80%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (41 of 44 users predict this - 93.18%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.73% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Elche (votes: 1 - 25%). Real (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dituro M. (C) 2. Buba Sangare 5. Redondo Solari F. 23. Chust V. 20. Tete Morente 12. Villar G. 8. Aguado M. 3. Revivo R. 11. Valera G. 24. Osorio A. 16. Neto M.	1. Courtois T. (G) 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 16. Konate I. 4. Huijsen D. 17. Cucurella M. 8. Valverde F. (C) 14. Tchouameni A. 25. Diomande Y. 15. Guler A. 7. Vinicius Junior 10. Mbappe K.
Substitutes
26. Barzic M. 6. Bigas P. 10. Buonanotte F. 21. Cepeda L. 19. Diangana G. 13. Iturbe A. (G) 17. Josan 18. Lemar T. 47. Morcillo J. 14. Nino F. 9. Ponce E. 22. Sanchez R.	2. Asencio R. 5. Bellingham J. 6. Camavinga E. 18. Carreras A. 21. Diaz B. 24. Dumfries D. 9. Endrick 19. Espi C. 13. Lunin A. (G) 27. Pitarch T. 22. Rudiger A. 20. Silva B.
Coaches
Anselmi M.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', Diomande Y. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Dituro M. (Own goal),
31', Aguado M. 🟨,
33', 0 - 2, Mbappe K. ⚽, Diomande Y. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', Valera G. ↓, Lemar T. ↑,
58', Aguado M. ↓, Cepeda L. ↑,
68', Vinicius Junior ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
68', Guler A. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
68', Buba Sangare ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
68', Neto M. ↓, Nino F. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Osorio A. ⚽, Cepeda L. (A),
73', Konate I. 🟨,
78', Cepeda L. 🟨,
80', Tete Morente ↓, Josan ↑,
83', 2 - 2, Nino F. ⚽, Josan (A),
86', Tchouameni A. ↓, Endrick ↑,
87', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Espi C. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 3, Espi C. ⚽, Mbappe K. (A),
90+2', Diomande Y. ↓, Dumfries D. ↑,
90+3', Josan 🟨,
90+4', Villar G. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elche won 0.

Elche is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Real is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Real has had a series of home games.

In this match, Real is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Elche won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 11:34. (average 0.8:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Elche won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 0.9:2).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 20.23% Elche: 0.2%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18:8	10	15
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11:17	-6	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elche CF
Spanish LaLiga
12.09.26	Athletic Bilbao - Elche	1:1 ✺
07.09.26	Elche - Real Sociedad	2:3 ✺
28.08.26	Racing Santander - Elche	3:2 ✺
23.08.26	Elche - Barcelona	0:5 ✺
17.08.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Elche	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLLLT
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
12.09.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Real Madrid - Inter Milan	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.09.26	Betis - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Real Madrid - Málaga	4:0 ✺
26.08.26	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
14.03.26	Real Madrid - Elche	4:1
23.11.25	Elche - Real Madrid	2:2
15.02.23	Real Madrid - Elche	4:0
19.10.22	Elche - Real Madrid	0:3
23.01.22	Real Madrid - Elche	2:2
Spanish Copa del Rey
20.01.22	Elche - Real Madrid	1:2 ET
Spanish LaLiga
30.10.21	Elche - Real Madrid	1:2

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