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Elche - Real Madrid

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 6
  • Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Estadio Manuel Martรญnez Valero (Elche) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)
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    Elche Real Madrid
    Elche Real Madrid
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 12.75 ↑
    (8.94)    		 7.45 ↑
    (5.74)    		 1.21 ↓
    (1.3)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

    • The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Elche
    7.5%    		Draw
    12.9%    		Real Madrid
    79.5%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    10.6% 16.5% 72.9%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    10.5% 16.3% 73.6%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Elche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)
  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elche than the current prediction. (+3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-5.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    2.3% 4.5% 93.2%

    Elche - Real Madrid Predictions

  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -2 - Real (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (1.76) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • AH +2.5 - Elche (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • New Consensus by Tipsters:
    • First Goalscorer - Kylian Mbappe (3.10) (votes: 89%) โญ Best Value.
    • BTTS - Real Madrid & Yes (2.38) (votes: 80%) โญ Best Value.
  • Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (41 of 44 users predict this - 93.18%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 85.73% โ€“ 100%.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Elche (votes: 1 - 25%). Real (votes: 3 - 75%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. ArgentinaDituro M. (C)
      2. SpainBuba Sangare
      5. ArgentinaRedondo Solari F.
    23. SpainChust V.
    20. SpainTete Morente
    12. SpainVillar G.
      8. SpainAguado M.
      3. IsraelRevivo R.
    11. SpainValera G.
    24. ArgentinaOsorio A.
    16. PortugalNeto M.
    		  1. BelgiumCourtois T. (G)
    12. EnglandAlexander-Arnold T.
    16. FranceKonate I.
      4. SpainHuijsen D.
    17. SpainCucurella M.
      8. UruguayValverde F. (C)
    14. FranceTchouameni A.
    25. IvoryDiomande Y.
    15. TurkeyGuler A.
      7. BrazilVinicius Junior
    10. FranceMbappe K.
    Substitutes
    26. CroatiaBarzic M.
      6. SpainBigas P.
    10. ArgentinaBuonanotte F.
    21. ChileCepeda L.
    19. DRDiangana G.
    13. SpainIturbe A. (G)
    17. SpainJosan
    18. FranceLemar T.
    47. SpainMorcillo J.
    14. SpainNino F.
      9. ArgentinaPonce E.
    22. SpainSanchez R.
    		  2. SpainAsencio R.
      5. EnglandBellingham J.
      6. FranceCamavinga E.
    18. SpainCarreras A.
    21. MoroccoDiaz B.
    24. NetherlandsDumfries D.
      9. BrazilEndrick
    19. SpainEspi C.
    13. UkraineLunin A. (G)
    27. SpainPitarch T.
    22. GermanyRudiger A.
    20. PortugalSilva B.
    Coaches
         ArgentinaAnselmi M.
    		     PortugalMourinho J.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 2)
    • 4', Diomande Y. 🟨,
    • 25', 0 - 1, Dituro M. (Own goal),
    • 31', Aguado M. 🟨,
    • 33', 0 - 2, Mbappe K. ⚽, Diomande Y. (A),
    • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
    • 58', Valera G. ↓, Lemar T. ↑,
    • 58', Aguado M. ↓, Cepeda L. ↑,
    • 68', Vinicius Junior ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
    • 68', Guler A. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
    • 68', Buba Sangare ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
    • 68', Neto M. ↓, Nino F. ↑,
    • 71', 1 - 2, Osorio A. ⚽, Cepeda L. (A),
    • 73', Konate I. 🟨,
    • 78', Cepeda L. 🟨,
    • 80', Tete Morente ↓, Josan ↑,
    • 83', 2 - 2, Nino F. ⚽, Josan (A),
    • 86', Tchouameni A. ↓, Endrick ↑,
    • 87', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Espi C. ↑,
    • 90+1', 2 - 3, Espi C. ⚽, Mbappe K. (A),
    • 90+2', Diomande Y. ↓, Dumfries D. ↑,
    • 90+3', Josan 🟨,
    • 90+4', Villar G. 🟨,

    Preview

  • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elche won 0.
  • Elche is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
  • Real is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins โ€“ 4).
  • Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Recently, Real has had a series of home games.
  • In this match, Real is the undisputed favorite.
  • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Elche won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 11:34. (average 0.8:2.6).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Elche won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 0.9:2).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    3Real Madrid1080225:101524
    15Elche1024414:17-310

    Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Real Madrid: 23.65% Elche: 0.14%
    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Elche CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    12.09.26 Athletic Bilbao - Elche 1:1 ✺
    07.09.26 Elche - Real Sociedad 2:3 ✺
    28.08.26 Racing Santander - Elche 3:2 ✺
    23.08.26 Elche - Barcelona 0:5 ✺
    17.08.26 Deportivo A Coruรฑa - Elche 1:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9
    TLLLT
    - Real Madrid
    Spanish LaLiga
    12.09.26 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 4:1 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    08.09.26 Real Madrid - Inter Milan 2:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    04.09.26 Betis - Real Madrid 1:0 ✺
    30.08.26 Real Madrid - Mรกlaga 4:0 ✺
    26.08.26 Real Madrid - Real Sociedad 4:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2
    WWLWW
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    14.03.26 Real Madrid - Elche 4:1
    23.11.25 Elche - Real Madrid 2:2
    15.02.23 Real Madrid - Elche 4:0
    19.10.22 Elche - Real Madrid 0:3
    23.01.22 Real Madrid - Elche 2:2
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    20.01.22 Elche - Real Madrid 1:2 ET
    Spanish LaLiga
    30.10.21 Elche - Real Madrid 1:2
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Elche CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.26 Elche - Valencia ✺
    - Real Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    04.11.26 AEK Athens - Real Madrid ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.26 Racing Santander - Real Madrid ✺

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