Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 23

Date: 28 December 2024, Saturday


	Gosport Borough		Winchester City

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.4	3.1
	1.99	3.55	3.2
	2.02	3.7	3.13
	1.98	3.78	3.38	Watch
	1.91	3.4	3.3
	1.86	3.58	3.54
	1.99	3.55	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.77)	3.57 ↓ (3.73)	3.26 ↓ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gosport Borough
46.5%

Draw
25.6%

Winchester City
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

24.5%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

24.2%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gosport Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gosport Borough's form might have worsened.

Winchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gosport Borough than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gosport Borough, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Winchester City than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Gosport Borough - Winchester City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
26', 0 - 1, Hill I. ⚽,
32', 0 - 2, Hill I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 0 - 3, Caborn T. ⚽,
72', 1 - 3, Yearwood A. (Pen),

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 11 and 17).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gosport won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Winchester could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Gosport is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Gosport won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:4 (average 1.3:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Gosport won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:3 (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gosport Borough
English Southern League South Division
26.12.24	Havant & Waterlooville - Gosport Borough	3:1 ✺
21.12.24	Gosport Borough - Hungerford Town	1:0 ✺
14.12.24	Hanwell Town - Gosport Borough	0:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
07.12.24	Worthing - Gosport Borough	1:2 penalties ✺
English Southern League South Division
30.11.24	Gosport Borough - Plymouth Parkway	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 LWTWT
- Winchester City
English Southern League South Division
26.12.24	Winchester City - Totton	1:4 ✺
21.12.24	Wimborne Town - Winchester City	2:4 ✺
17.12.24	Winchester City - Basingstoke Town	2:4 ✺
14.12.24	Winchester City - Bracknell Town	0:0 ✺
30.11.24	Sholing - Winchester City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
18.08.24	Winchester City - Gosport Borough	0:2
01.04.24	Gosport Borough - Winchester City	2:1
01.01.24	Winchester City - Gosport Borough	1:1
02.01.23	Gosport Borough - Winchester City	2:2
29.08.22	Winchester City - Gosport Borough	0:1
Club Friendly
04.07.15	Winchester City - Gosport Borough	0:0

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