Match Info

WALES: Cymru South - Round 19

Date: 22 January 2025, Wednesday


	Goytre United		Llantwit Major

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.7	2.11
	2.81	3.56	2.08
	2.89	3.81	2.19	Watch
	2.88	3.75	2
	2.85	3.64	2.11
	2.8	3.7	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (3.52)	3.69 ↓ (3.94)	2.1 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Goytre United
32.1%

Draw
24.6%

Llantwit Major
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

23.2%

50.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.4%

22.6%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Goytre United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Goytre United's performance.

Llantwit Major has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Llantwit Major might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Goytre United than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Goytre United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llantwit Major than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Llantwit Major could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Goytre United - Llantwit Major Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Goytre United will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Llantwit Major will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Goytre United: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Barrow J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 13 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Goytre United won 1.

Goytre United has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Llantwit Major is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Goytre United won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14:17 (average 1.4:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Goytre United won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:13 (average 1.7:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Goytre United
Welsh Cymru South
17.01.25	Goytre United - Penrhiwceiber Rangers	2:1 ✺
10.01.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Goytre United	3:1 ✺
26.12.24	Goytre United - Afan Lido	0:3 ✺
30.11.24	Cambrian United - Goytre United	2:0 ✺
22.11.24	Llanelli - Goytre United	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLL
- Llantwit Major FC
Welsh Cymru South
17.01.25	Llanelli - Llantwit Major	2:0 ✺
11.01.25	Llantwit Major - Carmarthen Town	0:2 ✺
26.12.24	Llantwit Major - Cambrian United	2:2 ✺
30.11.24	Baglan Dragons - Llantwit Major	0:0 ✺
23.11.24	Llantwit Major - Pontypridd United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
05.10.24	Llantwit Major - Goytre United	1:1
13.04.24	Goytre United - Llantwit Major	2:2
06.04.24	Llantwit Major - Goytre United	0:1
Welsh League Cup
22.07.23	Goytre United - Llantwit Major	1:2
Welsh Cymru South
29.04.23	Llantwit Major - Goytre United	1:1
06.12.22	Goytre United - Llantwit Major	4:3
06.04.22	Goytre United - Llantwit Major	2:4

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