Match Info

Cymru South - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday


	Baglan Dragons		Llantwit Major

	1	X	2
	2.58	3.35	2.35
	2.59	3.43	2.38
	2.57	3.47	2.52	Watch
	2.62	3.22	2.4
	2.55	3.35	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↓ (2.59)	3.36 ↓ (3.43)	2.4 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baglan Dragons
35.2%

Draw
27%

Llantwit Major
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

26.6%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

25.7%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Baglan Dragons have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Llantwit Major has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Llantwit Major than the current prediction. (-1%)

Baglan Dragons - Llantwit Major Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', 0 - 1, Bevan L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+7', 1 - 1, Logan N. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 12).

Recent form of Baglan Dragons has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Llantwit Major has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Baglan Dragons won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.3:0).

Including home matches between the teams, Baglan Dragons won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
27.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Cambrian United	0:1 ✺
17.09.25	Caerau Ely - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Cardiff Draconians	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Baglan Dragons - Trefelin	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTTT
- Llantwit Major FC
Welsh Cymru South
27.09.25	Llantwit Major - Cardiff Draconians	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Llantwit Major - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	3:3 ✺
22.08.25	Cambrian United - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
08.03.25	Llantwit Major - Baglan Dragons	0:1
30.11.24	Baglan Dragons - Llantwit Major	0:0
29.03.24	Baglan Dragons - Llantwit Major	0:0

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