Match Info

Cymru South - Round 13

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday


	Llantwit Major		Newport City

	1	X	2
	3.15	3.5	1.95
	3.24	3.61	2
	3.13	3.56	2.10	Watch
	3.19	3.44	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (3.13)	3.53 ↓ (3.56)	2.02 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llantwit Major
28.8%

Draw
25.9%

Newport City
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

26.1%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

25.9%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llantwit Major has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Newport City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llantwit Major than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Llantwit Major - Newport City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
29', 0 - 1, Kavanagh R. ⚽,
45+3', 0 - 2, Kavanagh R. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
75', 🟥,
81', 1 - 2, Rowe K. ⚽,
84', 2 - 2, Jones L. R. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 7).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Newport City will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Llantwit Major won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Llantwit Major won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llantwit Major FC
Welsh Cymru South
01.11.25	Treowen Stars - Llantwit Major	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Llantwit Major - Ynyshir Albions	2:1 ✺
11.10.25	Llantwit Major - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Baglan Dragons - Llantwit Major	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Llantwit Major - Cardiff Draconians	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWTL
- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
01.11.25	Newport City - Ammanford	0:0 ✺
25.10.25	Aberystwyth Town - Newport City	0:1 ✺
21.10.25	Caerau Ely - Newport City	4:3 ✺
10.10.25	Newport City - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Carmarthen Town - Newport City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
28.03.25	Newport City - Llantwit Major	2:1
12.10.24	Llantwit Major - Newport City	1:1
Welsh League Cup
20.07.24	Llantwit Major - Newport City	2:0

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