Match Info

Cymru South - Round 10

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Llantwit Major		Pontypridd United

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.45	2.35
	2.57	3.42	2.41
	1.08	9.04	24.08	Watch
	2.56	3.45	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.46)	4.84 ↑ (3.39)	7.79 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llantwit Major
57.8%

Draw
26.1%

Pontypridd United
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

26.6%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

26.5%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llantwit Major has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Llantwit Major's performance.

Pontypridd United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pontypridd United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Llantwit Major than the current prediction. (-20.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Llantwit Major that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+20.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pontypridd United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Llantwit Major - Pontypridd United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Stokes T. M. ⚽,
11', 2 - 0, Bevan L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 13 and 11)

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Pontypridd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Llantwit Major won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:10. (average 1.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Llantwit Major won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 2.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llantwit Major FC
Welsh Cymru South
04.10.25	Baglan Dragons - Llantwit Major	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Llantwit Major - Cardiff Draconians	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Llantwit Major - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TLTWT
- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
03.10.25	Pontypridd United - Treowen Stars	5:2 ✺
26.09.25	Ammanford - Pontypridd United	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Pontypridd United - Newport City	1:3 ✺
05.09.25	Pontypridd United - Carmarthen Town	3:1 ✺
25.08.25	Caerau Ely - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
23.11.24	Llantwit Major - Pontypridd United	1:1
07.09.24	Pontypridd United - Llantwit Major	1:1
12.02.22	Llantwit Major - Pontypridd United	3:1
23.10.21	Pontypridd United - Llantwit Major	4:0
Welsh Division 1
09.02.19	Llantwit Major - Pontypridd United	4:3

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