Match Info

Serie B - Round 5

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Referee: Ferreira J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.5	6	Watch
	1.62	3.45	5.5	Watch
	1.65	3.62	6.53
	1.68	3.48	5.53	Watch
	1.62	3.3	5.75
	1.64	3.51	5.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.72)	3.48 ↑ (3.4)	5.85 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
57.2%

Draw
26.8%

Athletic Club
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

27.1%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

28.9%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Athletic will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Novorizontino: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cesar Augusto (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 25. Dantas 4. Patrick 5. Sander 6. Luis Oyama 19. Diego Galo 15. Tavinho 10. Romulo 17. Matheus Bianqui 11. Robson (C)	1. Luan Polli (G) 2. Diogo Batista 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi 6. Zeca (C) 5. Ian Luccas 15. Jota 17. Kauan Rodrigues 7. Bruninho 9. Tavares R. 21. Vera D.
Substitutes
9. Carlao 20. Castrillon N. 77. Helio Borges 40. Jardiel 12. Joao Scapin (G) 50. Juninho 21. Kauan Alemao 18. Leo Naldi 24. Lora J. 8. Ortiz C. 7. Ronald Barcellos 16. Vinicius Paiva	8. Cabezas G. 13. Gabriel Indio 10. Gustavinho 12. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 16. Joao Miguel 19. Leo Chu 14. Marcelo Henrique 18. Pedro Oliveira 20. Samuel Otusanya
Coaches
Moreira E.	Alex Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Tavinho ⚽, Robson (A),
22', 1 - 1, Belezi ⚽,
33', Belezi 🟥,
37', Vera D. ↓, Gabriel Indio ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bruninho ↓, Joao Miguel ↑,
53', Jota 🟨,
54', Jhonatan Silva 🟨,
54', Diogo Batista 🟨,
55', Jhonatan Silva 🟨,
59', Jota ↓, Cabezas G. ↑,
60', Diego Galo ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
61', Ivan Alvarino ↓, Juninho ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Robson ⚽,
70', Tavares R. ↓, Samuel Otusanya ↑,
71', Kauan Rodrigues ↓, Marcelo Henrique ↑,
77', Robson ↓, Carlao ↑,
78', Romulo ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
83', Carlao 🟨,
90+3', Tavinho ↓, Helio Borges ↑,

Preview

Now, both teams are in good form.

Novorizontino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Novorizontino is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Jordi (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Maykon Jesus (Inactive)

There will not play in Athletic: Rodrigo Gelado (Inactive) Sidimar (Inactive)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Dantas (Injury) Nicolas Careca (Injury)

There are questionable in Athletic: Jhonatan Luiz (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
15.04.26	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
12.04.26	América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
09.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
05.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
31.03.26	Juventude - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWWTT
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
12.04.26	CRB Maceio - Athletic Club	2:3 ✺
05.04.26	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
01.04.26	Criciúma - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Athletic Club - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.2 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.09.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club	1:0
17.05.25	Athletic Club - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2

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