Match Info

Serie B - Round 8

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.25	5	Watch
	1.8	3.2	4.65
	1.84	3.4	4.82
	1.8	3.2	4.94	Watch
	1.83	3.1	4.5
	1.8	3.28	4.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.78)	3.24 ↓ (3.35)	4.77 ↓ (4.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
51.7%

Draw
28.8%

Botafogo SP
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

27.9%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

26.9%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

The chances for Botafogo SP have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cesar Augusto (G) 3. Carlinhos 21. Kauan Alemao 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 77. Helio Borges 10. Romulo 16. Vinicius Paiva 11. Robson (C)	12. Jordan (G) 22. Gabriel Inocencio 15. Guilherme Mariano 4. Vilar 6. Patrick Brey (C) 16. Matheus Sales 8. Everton Morelli 30. Ze Hugo 10. Rafael Gava 7. Kelvin 21. Luizao
Substitutes
9. Carlao 20. Castrillon N. 19. Diego Galo 35. Hector Bianchi 22. Ivan Alvarino 40. Jardiel 93. Jordi (G) 50. Juninho 28. Marlon 8. Ortiz C. 33. Renato Palm 7. Ronald Barcellos	25. Brenno Klippel (G) 26. Felipe Vieira 17. Guilherme Queiroz 33. Hebert 11. Jefferson Nem 19. Marcio Maranhao 28. Marco Antonio 20. Marquinho 31. Pedro Henrique 29. Thiago Moraes 23. Wesley Santos
Coaches
Moreira E.	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Luis Oyama ↓, Juninho ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Helio Borges ↓, Carlao ↑,
55', Luizao ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
57', 1 - 0, Robson ⚽, Vinicius Paiva (A),
65', Rafael Gava ↓, Thiago Moraes ↑,
65', Ze Hugo ↓, Marcio Maranhao ↑,
71', Kelvin ↓, Wesley Santos ↑,
71', Guilherme Mariano ↓, Hebert ↑,
76', Marcio Maranhao 🟨,
83', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Marlon ↑,
83', Robson ↓, Ronald Barcellos ↑,
87', Carlinhos 🟨,
90+1', Leo Naldi 🟨,
90+1', Romulo 🟨,
90+2', Romulo ↓, Diego Galo ↑,
90+4', Matheus Sales 🟨,
90+6', Diego Galo 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 15 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3.

Recent performances by Novorizontino have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Botafogo SP has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Novorizontino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Novorizontino is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Eduardo Brock (Injury) Gabriel Bahia (Inactive) Lucas Pereira (Inactive) Matheus Bianqui (Red Card) Nicolas Careca (Injury) Sander (Inactive)

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Carlao (Injury) Ericson (Knee Injury) Jonathan (Inactive)

There are questionable in Novorizontino: Diego Mathias (Inactive) Kauan Alemao (Injury) Patrick (Injury) Renato Palm (Inactive) Romulo (Injury)

There are questionable in Botafogo SP: Hygor (Injury) Victor Souza (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.1:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36:38	-2	38

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio Novorizontino - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 52.53%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	Volta Redonda - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Avaí - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
29.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
25.04.26	Sport Recife - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTLLW
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
02.05.26	Botafogo SP - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
22.04.26	Cuiabá - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Botafogo SP - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Criciúma - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Botafogo SP - São Bernardo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
24.10.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	1:1
06.07.25	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	2:0
27.05.24	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1
21.10.23	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0

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