Match Info

Serie B - Round 33

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Santa Cruz (Ribeirao Preto) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	21:00	Disney+, ESPN


	Botafogo SP		Ceará

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.00	3.50	Watch
	2.25	2.95	3.20
	2.20	3.20	3.30
	2.30	3.11	3.65
	2.1	3.26	3.56	Watch
	2.25	3.00	3.60
	2.24	2.98	3.48	Watch
	2.25	2.95	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.38)	3.06 ↓ (3.15)	3.46 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
42.2%

Draw
30.7%

Ceará
27.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.2%

29.6%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

29.5%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Botafogo SP - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Botafogo SP will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Ceará will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Souza (G) 2. Jonathan 3. Ericson 4. Vilar 22. Gabriel Inocencio 8. Everton Morelli 16. Matheus Sales 6. Patrick Brey (C) 10. Rafael Gava 9. Hygor 7. Kelvin	1. Richard (G) 18. Julio Cesar 4. Luiz Otavio 13. Luiz Otavio (C) 12. Sanchez 25. Vinicius Zanocelo 81. Joao Gabriel 8. Matheus Araujo 40. Melk 60. Enzo Lodovico 73. Saulo Mineiro
Substitutes
18. Arthur Caike 27. Darlan 26. Felipe Vieira 17. Guilherme Queiroz 34. Hebert 21. Jadson 12. Jordan (G) 28. Marco Antonio 31. Pedro Henrique 29. Thiago Moraes 20. Yuri Felipe 30. Ze Hugo	23. Caique Franca (G) 33. Eder 11. Ferreira Berrondo M. N. 7. Giovanni Pavani 78. Janderson 77. Lenny Lobato 94. Lopez R. 10. Lucas Mugni 99. Lucca 2. Ramos R. 16. Rian Santana 26. Richardson
Coaches
Claudio Tencati	Daniel Paulista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Everton Morelli 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Matheus Sales ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
66', Luiz Otavio 🟨,
72', Enzo Lodovico ↓, Rian Santana ↑,
72', Melk ↓, Lenny Lobato ↑,
73', Kelvin ↓, Ze Hugo ↑,
73', Gabriel Inocencio ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Hygor ⚽,
78', Matheus Araujo ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
83', Julio Cesar ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
83', Vinicius Zanocelo ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
83', Hygor ↓, Arthur Caike ↑,
84', Rafael Gava ↓, Hebert ↑,
90+4', Joao Gabriel 🟨,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 16th and 14th).

In recent outings, Botafogo SP has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Ceará is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Ceará could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Botafogo SP is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Botafogo SP: Carlao (Knee Injury) Erik Rebello (Injury) Leandro Maciel (Yellow Cards) Wallace (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Ceará: Gabriel Rocha (Foot Injury) Gilmar (Injury) Savio (Inactive) Thalisson (Knee Injury) Vina (Yellow Cards).

Doubtful / questionable for Botafogo SP: Guilherme Mariano (Muscle Injury) Jefferson Nem (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Ceará: Bryan Borges (Inactive) Saulo Mineiro (Inactive).

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo SP has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:13 (averaging 1:2.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Botafogo SP against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:6 goals (averaging 1.5:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	40:38	2	47
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37:44	-7	43

Last Results with these Odds

Ceará - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 31.12%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
07.10.26	Operário Ferroviario - Botafogo SP	1:2 ✺
03.10.26	Botafogo SP - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
29.09.26	Botafogo SP - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Athletic Club - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
14.09.26	Botafogo SP - Goiás	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLWTL
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
08.10.26	Ceará - Criciúma	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Avaí - Ceará	0:1 ✺
26.09.26	Operário Ferroviario - Ceará	2:2 ✺
18.09.26	Ceará - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
20.06.26	Ceará - Botafogo SP	0:1
12.11.24	Botafogo SP - Ceará	1:4
25.07.24	Ceará - Botafogo SP	4:1
04.11.23	Botafogo SP - Ceará	2:2
07.07.23	Ceará - Botafogo SP	3:0

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