Match Info

Paulista - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Santos

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.1	2.15	Watch
	3	3.2	2.3
	3.2	3.1	2.25	Watch
	2.9	3.05	2.57
	3.35	3.16	2.23	Watch
	3.2	2.9	2.15
	3.52	3.24	2.18	Watch
	2.9	3	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (2.86)	3.09 ↑ (3.05)	2.3 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
29.5%

Draw
30.1%

Santos
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

30.1%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

30.2%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Santos (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 25. Dantas 4. Patrick 77. Mayk 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 15. Tavinho 10. Romulo 8. Ortiz C. 11. Robson (C)	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 98. Frias A. 14. Luan Peres 31. Escobar G. 15. Willian Arao 25. Gabriel Menino 22. Barreal A. 10. Neymar (C) 11. Rony 9. Gabriel Barbosa
Substitutes
90. Caio Dantas 20. Castrillon N. 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 14. Eduardo Brock 40. Jardiel 50. Juninho 21. Kauan Alemao 24. Lora J. 17. Matheus Bianqui 30. Nicolas Careca 16. Vinicius Paiva	1. Diogenes (G) 49. Gabriel Bontempo 48. Gustavo Henrique 5. Joao Schmidt 12. Mayke 30. Miguelito 21. Moises 32. Rollheiser B. 16. Thaciano 3. Vinicius Lira 2. Ze Ivaldo 6. Ze Rafael
Coaches
Moreira E.	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+1', 1 - 0, Romulo ⚽, Tavinho (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ortiz C. ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
46', Gabriel Menino ↓, Gabriel Bontempo ↑,
61', Tavinho ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
63', Barreal A. ↓, Moises ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Gabriel Bontempo ⚽, Gabriel Barbosa (A),
83', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Thaciano ↑,
85', Romulo ↓, Juninho ↑,
88', Juninho 🟨,
90', Rony ↓, Miguelito ↑,
90+1', Luan Peres 🟨,
90+5', Luis Oyama ↓, Eduardo Brock ↑,
90+5', Mayk ↓, Caio Dantas ↑,
90+6', 2 - 1, Leo Naldi ⚽, Vinicius Paiva (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Novorizontino is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 2.

Novorizontino is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Santos has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Novorizontino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Santos: Frias A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Santos: Duarte A. (Inactive) Tiquinho Soares (Inactive) Ze Rafael (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 2:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio Novorizontino - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 32.13%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:0 ✺
07.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
02.02.26	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
20.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 LWTWW
- Santos FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	Santos - Velo Clube	7:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	EC Noroeste - Santos	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Santos - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	São Paulo - Santos	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
10.01.26	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1
09.02.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
23.09.24	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
07.06.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	3:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.02.24	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2
27.02.22	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2
23.04.21	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	1:0

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