Match Info

Paulista - Play Offs - Final

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max, TV Record


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	5	3.2	1.8	Watch
	3.6	3	2.1
	4.35	3.1	1.9	Watch
	4.8	3.2	1.9
	4.55	3.29	1.85	Watch
	3.9	3.1	1.85
	4.6	2.98	1.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.4 ↑ (3.91)	3.12 ↑ (2.91)	1.89 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
21.1%

Draw
29.7%

Palmeiras
49.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.5%

31.6%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.6%

31.7%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Novorizontino (4.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 25. Dantas 4. Patrick 77. Mayk 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 17. Matheus Bianqui 10. Romulo 16. Vinicius Paiva 11. Robson (C)	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 12. Khellven 26. Murilo 15. Gomez G. (C) 22. Piquerez J. 8. Andreas Pereira 17. Marlon Freitas 11. Arias J. 18. Mauricio 9. Vitor Roque 42. Lopez J.
Substitutes
90. Caio Dantas 20. Castrillon N. 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 14. Eduardo Brock 26. Gabriel Bahia 40. Jardiel 50. Juninho 21. Kauan Alemao 30. Nicolas Careca 8. Ortiz C. 15. Tavinho	40. Allan Elias 56. Arthur Gabriel 3. Bruno Fuchs 7. Felipe Anderson 4. Giay A. 6. Jefte 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 19. Sosa R.
Coaches
Moreira E.	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Murilo ⚽,
14', Lopez J. 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, Matheus Bianqui ⚽,
28', Gomez G. 🟨,
45+4', Enderson Moreira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Romulo 🟨,
62', 1 - 2, Vitor Roque ⚽, Arias J. (A),
65', Mauricio ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
77', Matheus Bianqui ↓, Nicolas Careca ↑,
77', Ivan Alvarino ↓, Kauan Alemao ↑,
79', Arias J. ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
79', Andreas Pereira ↓, Allan Elias ↑,
81', Romulo ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
81', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Tavinho ↑,
84', Lopez J. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
84', Vitor Roque ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
88', Luis Oyama ↓, Juninho ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1. Second leg.

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Novorizontino is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Palmeiras is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 2.

Novorizontino has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Palmeiras is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.

In this match, Palmeiras is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Helio Borges (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Maykon Jesus (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo (Injury) Martinez E. (Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:26. (average 0.8:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.2:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 44.89%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
04.03.26	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Nacional AM	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWWWL
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
04.03.26	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Palmeiras - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.02.26	Palmeiras - Capivariano	4:0 ✺
15.02.26	Palmeiras - Guarani	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
04.03.26	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
20.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	4:0
25.01.25	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2
28.03.24	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
21.01.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	1:1
23.01.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	0:2
26.03.19	Palmeiras - Grêmio Novorizontino	5:0

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