Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 3

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba)

Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	ZhiBo8
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 1
World	Onefootball


	Athletico Paranaense		Santos

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.25	4	Watch
	2.4	3.1	3.2
	2.02	3.15	3.7	Watch
	2.02	3.3	4.38
	2.02	3.26	4.07	Watch
	2	3.1	3.7
	2.05	3.34	4.11	Watch
	2.05	3.1	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.44)	3.2 ↑ (2.97)	3.92 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
46%

Draw
29.7%

Santos
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

31.5%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

31.2%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletico Paranaense's performance.

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletico Paranaense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	8.3%	16.7%

Athletico Paranaense - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 18 - 85.7%). Santos will win (votes: 1 - 4.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 70.7% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Athletico PR (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Santos (2.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletico Paranaense will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Santos (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 13. Teran C. 4. Arthur Dias 37. Esquivel L. 29. Benavidez G. 27. Portilla J. 10. Zapelli B. 61. Leo Derik 7. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K. 20. Julimar	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 2. Ze Ivaldo 14. Luan Peres 3. Vinicius Lira 25. Gabriel Menino 5. Joao Schmidt 49. Gabriel Bontempo 30. Miguelito 16. Thaciano 11. Rony
Substitutes
33. Aguirre F. 48. Bruninho 47. Chiqueti 63. Diogo Riquelme 53. Dudu Kogitzki 2. Gilberto Junior 16. Jadson 57. Joao Cruz 3. Leo 21. Leozinho 14. Luiz Gustavo 1. Mycael (G)	22. Barreal A. 19. Diaz L. 1. Diogenes (G) 31. Escobar G. 4818. Gustavo Henrique 26. Joao Ananias 13. Joao Basso 12. Mayke 21. Moises 8. Rincon T. 7. Robinho Jr. 32. Rollheiser B.
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Julimar (Penalty Awarded),
17', 1 - 1, Thaciano ⚽,
27', Gabriel Bontempo 🟨,
39', Hellmann O. 🟨,
42', Portilla J. ↓, Luiz Gustavo ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
67', Leo Derik ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
67', Julimar ↓, Chiqueti ↑,
68', Miguelito ↓, Moises ↑,
68', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
74', Igor Vinicius 🟨,
87', Chiqueti 🟨,
88', Thaciano ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
89', Rony ↓, Joao Basso ↑,
89', Zapelli B. ↓, Jadson ↑,
89', Mendoza S. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
90+1', 2 - 1, Viveros K. ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
90+3', Vinicius Lira 🟨,
90+4', Vinicius Lira ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 1.

Athletico PR is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Santos has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Athletico PR could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Felipinho (Inactive) Renan Peixoto (Injury)

There will not play in Santos: Frias A. (Inactive) Neymar (Knee Injury) Willian Arao (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Santos: Barreal A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 18:22. (average 0.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
07.02.26	Foz do Iguaçu - Athletico Paranaense	1:3 ✺
03.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Foz do Iguaçu	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Internacional RS - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
24.01.26	Athletico Paranaense - Galo Maringá	4:1 ✺
20.01.26	Azuriz - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWWL
- Santos FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	EC Noroeste - Santos	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Santos - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	São Paulo - Santos	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Chapecoense - Santos	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.26	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
03.12.23	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	3:0
05.08.23	Santos - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
27.09.22	Santos - Athletico Paranaense	2:0
04.06.22	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:2
30.10.21	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	0:1
Copa do Brasil
14.09.21	Santos - Athletico Paranaense	0:1
25.08.21	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	1:0

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