Match Info

Paulista - Round 7

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Alfredo de Castilho (Bauru)

Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping


	EC Noroeste		Santos

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.5	1.7	Watch
	4.65	3.35	1.75	Watch
	5.11	3.58	1.72
	5.05	3.45	1.74	Watch
	4.8	3.25	1.67
	5.31	3.54	1.72	Watch
	4.75	3.5	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.99 ↑ (3.59)	3.45 ↑ (3.11)	1.72 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC Noroeste
18.7%

Draw
27.1%

Santos
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.8%

29.7%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

27.4%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC Noroeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that EC Noroeste's form might have worsened.

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC Noroeste than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for EC Noroeste, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

EC Noroeste - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Noroeste will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Santos will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Noroeste (votes: 1 - 50%). Santos (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Santos (2.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Noroeste (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Santos (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luiz Daniel (G) 5. Pedro Carrerette 33. Ronaldo Alves 3. Carlinhos (C) 95. Yuri Ferraz 70. Cristiano 15. Taua 12. Sanchez 27. Diego Mathias 9. Carlao 10. Thiago Lopes	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 14. Luan Peres 2. Ze Ivaldo 31. Escobar G. 49. Gabriel Bontempo 5. Joao Schmidt 22. Barreal A. 11. Rony 9. Gabriel Barbosa (C) 30. Miguelito
Substitutes
23. Igor 94. Jeferson Romario (G) 2. Jhonny 30. Leocovick 19. Leo Tocantins 4. Lucas Cunha 11. Marlyson 72. Peixoto 6. PH 18. Rafael Silva 22. Renan Araujo 20. Wesley Santos	19. Diaz L. 1. Diogenes (G) 26. Joao Ananias 13. Joao Basso 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 12. Mayke 57. Nadson 8. Rincon T. 7. Robinho Jr. 32. Rollheiser B. 16. Thaciano 3. Vinicius Lira
Coaches
Guilherme Alves	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Pedro Carrerette (Own goal),
16', 1 - 1, Pedro Carrerette ⚽, Diego Mathias (A),
19', Barreal A. ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
29', 1 - 2, Rony ⚽, Igor Vinicius (A),
45+5', Thiago Lopes 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Miguelito 🟨,
71', Diego Mathias ↓, Marlyson ↑,
71', Ronaldo Alves ↓, Leo Tocantins ↑,
71', Cristiano ↓, Igor ↑,
74', Igor Vinicius 🟨,
75', Marlyson 🟨,
78', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
78', Rony ↓, Thaciano ↑,
84', Sanchez ↓, Leocovick ↑,
87', Escobar G. ↓, Vinicius Lira ↑,
87', Miguelito ↓, Nadson ↑,
88', Taua ↓, Rafael Silva ↑,
89', Ze Ivaldo 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 13 and 14).

Noroeste has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Santos's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Noroeste may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Santos is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Noroeste: Leo Sena (Injury) Pedro Felipe (Yellow Cards) Peixoto (Inactive)

There will not play in Santos: Gabriel Menino (Red Card) Gustavo Henrique (Muscle Injury) Neymar (Knee Injury) Thaciano (Inactive) Willian Arao (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Noroeste: Maycon (Injury) Robertinho (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Noroeste won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Noroeste
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.02.26	EC Noroeste - Velo Clube	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Ponte Preta - EC Noroeste	2:2 ✺
21.01.26	EC Noroeste - Capivariano	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	São Bernardo - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	Botafogo SP - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WTTTT
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Santos - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	São Paulo - Santos	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Chapecoense - Santos	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.26	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
22.01.26	Santos - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
19.02.25	Santos - EC Noroeste	3:0

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