Match Info

Paulista - Round 8

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Santos		Velo Clube

	1	X	2
	1.22	5	13	Watch
	1.28	5.25	10
	1.26	5.15	11	Watch
	1.25	5.89	12.16
	1.26	5.43	11.34	Watch
	1.22	5	11
	1.22	5.2	11.5	Watch
	1.26	5.33	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.26)	5.28 ↑ (4.9)	11.5 ↓ (11.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
74.4%

Draw
17.6%

Velo Clube
8.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

73.2%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Velo Clube has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Santos - Velo Clube Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Velo Clube (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Velo Clube (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 12. Mayke 2. Ze Ivaldo 14. Luan Peres 3. Vinicius Lira 22. Barreal A. 15. Willian Arao 49. Gabriel Bontempo 21. Moises 9. Gabriel Barbosa (C) 16. Thaciano	1. Marcelo Carne (G) 3. Mancha 5. Marcelo Augusto (C) 4. Betao 2. Thomas Luciano 8. Rodrigo 7. Luiz Otavio 6. Caique 11. Mateus Norton 9. Jhoninha 10. Rodrigo Alves
Substitutes
19. Diaz L. 1. Diogenes (G) 31. Escobar G. 25. Gabriel Menino 48. Gustavo Henrique 26. Joao Ananias 5. Joao Schmidt 30. Miguelito 10. Neymar 7. Robinho Jr. 32. Rollheiser B. 11. Rony	23. Adriano Jr 19. Daniel Amorim 13. Islan 20. Joao Lucas 17. Karl 21. Lucas Duni 14. Lucas Mingoti 12. Paulo V. (G) 15. Ruan 18. Sillas 16. Ze Mario
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Pintado

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, Thaciano (A),
17', Rodrigo 🟨,
19', 2 - 0, Moises ⚽, Gabriel Barbosa (A),
23', 3 - 0, Thaciano ⚽, Gabriel Bontempo (A),
34', Mateus Norton ↓, Karl ↑,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Thaciano ↓, Miguelito ↑,
46', Barreal A. ↓, Neymar ↑,
46', Caique ↓, Ze Mario ↑,
46', Marcelo Augusto ↓, Daniel Amorim ↑,
53', Rodrigo ↓, Adriano Jr ↑,
57', Luiz Otavio 🟥,
58', Willian Arao ↓, Gabriel Menino ↑,
61', Jhoninha ↓, Islan ↑,
67', Thomas Luciano 🟨,
69', 4 - 0, Gabriel Menino ⚽, Miguelito (A),
76', Moises ↓, Rony ↑,
78', Islan 🟨,
82', 5 - 0, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽,
83', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
83', 6 - 0, Rollheiser B. ⚽,
90+2', 7 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A2).

Santos is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Velo Clube is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Santos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Santos has had a series of away games.

In this match, Santos is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Santos: Duarte A. (Inactive) Frias A. (Inactive) Gabriel Barbosa (Inactive) Igor Vinicius (Yellow Cards) Neymar (Knee Injury) Willian Arao (Knee Injury) Ze Rafael (Inactive)

There will not play in Velo Clube: Ynaia (Red Card)

There are questionable in Santos: Tiquinho Soares (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Santos won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	EC Noroeste - Santos	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Santos - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
31.01.26	São Paulo - Santos	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Chapecoense - Santos	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWTLL
- Velo Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Velo Clube - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	EC Noroeste - Velo Clube	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Velo Clube - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
22.01.26	Velo Clube - Guarani	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Portuguesa - Velo Clube	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.25	Velo Clube - Santos	2:1

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