Match Info

Paulista - Round 6

Date: 2 February 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Mirassol		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	4.75	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.15	Watch
	2.04	3.22	3.98
	1.87	3.37	4.31	Watch
	1.83	3.1	4
	1.83	3.35	4.82	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (1.87)	3.29 ↑ (3.18)	4.39 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
50.3%

Draw
28.4%

Grêmio Novorizontino
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

29.1%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

31.8%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 4. Luiz Otavio 3. Willian Machado 14. Igor Carius 25. Neto Moura (C) 21. Jose Aldo 7. Shaylon 17. Everton Galdino 78. Renato Marques 70. Rodrigo Rodrigues	93. Jordi (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 26. Gabriel Bahia 14. Eduardo Brock 77. Mayk 6. Luis Oyama 17. Matheus Bianqui 41. Helio Borges 10. Romulo 66. Maykon Jesus 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
23. Alex Muralha (G) 96. Carlos Eduardo 10. Chico Kim 8. Denilson 35. Fernando L. 26. Lucas Mugni 2. Lucas Oliveira 9. Nathan Fogaca 11. Negueba 97. Rodrigues 90. Thomazella (G) 5. Yuri Lara	27. Bruninho 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 40. Jardiel 50. Juninho 21. Kauan Alemao 23. Kaue J. 24. Lora J. 30. Nicolas Careca 4. Patrick 15. Tavinho 16. Vinicius Paiva
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Shaylon 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Romulo ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Luiz Otavio ↓, Lucas Oliveira ↑,
46', Shaylon ↓, Negueba ↑,
46', Everton Galdino ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
49', Renato Marques ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
62', Romulo ↓, Juninho ↑,
62', Jordi 🟨,
64', Ivan Alvarino 🟨,
77', Rodrigo Rodrigues ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
82', Igor Formiga 🟨,
82', Helio Borges ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Carlos Eduardo ⚽,
90+3', Maykon Jesus ↓, Patrick ↑,
90+4', Robson ↓, Nicolas Careca ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 1.

Recent performances by Mirassol have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Novorizontino is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Novorizontino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mirassol is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Mirassol: Andre Luis (Inactive) Edson Carioca (Muscle Injury) Felipe Jonatan (Inactive)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Caio Dantas (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Alesson (Injury) Reinaldo (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
29.01.26	Mirassol - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.01.26	São Bernardo - Mirassol	0:4 ✺
21.01.26	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	EC Primavera - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWTLL
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	2:0 ✺
20.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Palmeiras	4:0 ✺
17.01.26	EC Primavera - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:4 ✺
13.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.02.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Mirassol	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
19.10.24	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
02.07.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Mirassol	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
28.01.24	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
11.08.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Mirassol	2:1
03.05.23	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
30.01.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Mirassol	0:0

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