Match Info

Serie B - Round 15

Date: 26 June 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Xsports, Zapping


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.25	4.75	Watch
	2.00	3.10	3.50
	1.85	3.2	4.35	Watch
	1.89	3.41	4.8
	1.9	3.27	4.32	Watch
	1.84	3.4	4.65
	1.81	3.26	4.77	Watch
	1.83	3.3	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (1.9)	3.27 ↓ (3.35)	4.44 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
50.3%

Draw
28.6%

Vila Nova
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

27.9%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

29.9%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Novorizontino: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 20. Castrillon N. 26. Gabriel Bahia 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 41. Reidiney 10. Romulo 16. Vinicius Paiva 11. Robson (C)	1. Helton Leite (G) 20. Nathan Camargo 3. Tiago Pagnussat (C) 38. Caio Marcelo 6. Higor 8. Willian Maranhao 5. Joao Vieira 11. Ryan 31. Dodo 99. Janderson 7. Andre Luis
Substitutes
9. Carlao 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 27. Diego Mathias 14. Eduardo Brock 77. Helio Borges 22. Ivan Alvarino 50. Juninho 21. Kauan Alemao 30. Nicolas Careca 8. Ortiz C. 7. Ronald Barcellos 15. Tavinho	33. Bruno Xavier 29. Dalberson (G) 49. Dellatorre 15. Dudu 18. Enzo Bizzotto 9. Gustavo Puskas 22. Hayner 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 16. Ramiro A. 4. Samuel Lucas 13. Willian Formiga
Coaches
Flores L.	Guto Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Luis Oyama ⚽, Robson (A),
41', 1 - 1, Nathan Camargo ⚽, Joao Vieira (A),
45+2', Ryan 🟨,
45+4', Gabriel Bahia 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Reidiney ↓, Juninho ↑,
60', Dodo ↓, Dudu ↑,
60', Willian Maranhao ↓, Marquinhos Gabriel ↑,
63', Nathan Camargo 🟨,
67', Dudu 🟨,
70', Nathan Camargo ↓, Hayner ↑,
71', Andre Luis ↓, Dellatorre ↑,
75', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Carlao ↑,
75', Leo Naldi ↓, Tavinho ↑,
84', Flores L. 🟨,
86', Dudu 🟨,
88', Romulo ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
88', Robson ↓, Helio Borges ↑,
88', Ryan ↓, Willian Formiga ↑,
90+4', 2 - 1, Juninho ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Recently, Novorizontino has had a series of away games.

In this match, Novorizontino is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Carlinhos (Inactive) Dantas (Inactive) Lora J. (Inactive) Lucas Pereira (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Inactive) Sander (Inactive)

There will not play in Vila Nova: Rafa Silva (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Vila Nova: Willian Formiga (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
22.06.26	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2 ✺
14.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2 ✺
10.06.26	Goiás - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:4 ✺
31.05.26	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
27.05.26	Chapecoense - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTWTT
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
20.06.26	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	4:3 ✺
14.06.26	Cuiabá - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
08.06.26	Vila Nova - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Londrina - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
24.05.26	América Mineiro - Vila Nova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
28.09.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	1:1
30.05.25	Vila Nova - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1
31.08.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	2:0
14.05.24	Vila Nova - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1
30.07.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	3:1
15.04.23	Vila Nova - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1
30.07.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	1:1

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