Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 40

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes (Granada)

Referee: Palencia D. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion 3, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Granada		Burgos

	1	X	2
	2.85	3	2.55	Watch
	2.88	2.98	2.52	Watch
	3.72	3.22	2.23
	3.58	3.13	2.2	Watch
	2.88	2.9	2.5
	2.97	3.13	2.59	Watch
	2.46	2.95	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.48)	3.04 ↑ (2.97)	2.53 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Granada
31.2%

Draw
31.2%

Burgos
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

31.8%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

31.1%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Granada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Granada's form might have worsened.

Burgos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Burgos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Granada than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Granada, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Burgos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

Granada - Burgos Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Granada will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Burgos will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Burgos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Astralaga A. (G) 2. Casadesus P. 28. Naasei O. 36. Juanjo 3. Hormigo D. 20. Ruiz S. (C) 4. Alcaraz R. 41. Gonzalez I. 21. Saenz P. 9. Petit G. 11. Arnaiz J. M.	13. Cantero A. (G) 2. Lizancos A. 6. Gonzalez S. 8. Sierra G. 12. Miguel F. 11. Mollejo V. 23. Morante I. 5. Atienza M. (C) 21. Cordoba I. 16. Curro 9. Nino F.
Substitutes
10. Bouldini M. 17. Diaby B. 22. Diallo B. 40. Diocou B. 23. Gagnidze L. 34. Garcia I. (G) 26. Rodelas S. 7. Sola A. 14. Trigueros M.	10. Appin K. 15. Bunuel A. 17. Cantero M. 28. del Cerro S. 33. Exposito M. 4. Galdames P. 31. Garcia F. 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 3. Luengo O. 22. Martinez B. 7. Mejia M. 1. Ruiz J. (G)
Coaches
Rojo Martin J.	Ramis L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Casadesus P. 🟨,
34', Atienza M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Naasei O. ↓, Diaby B. ↑,
59', Ruiz S. 🟨,
61', Diaby B. 🟨,
63', Atienza M. ↓, Gonzalez Ballesteros D. ↑,
63', Curro ↓, Appin K. ↑,
63', Cordoba I. ↓, Galdames P. ↑,
63', Petit G. ↓, Sola A. ↑,
63', Saenz P. ↓, Rodelas S. ↑,
67', Sola A. 🟨,
69', Alcaraz R. 🟨,
74', Casadesus P. ↓, Diallo B. ↑,
77', Mollejo V. ↓, Mejia M. ↑,
78', Alcaraz R. ↓, Trigueros M. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 1, Gonzalez Ballesteros D. ⚽,
90+2', Curro 🟨,
90+3', Nino F. ↓, Exposito M. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 14 and 8).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Granada may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Granada: Lama M. (Injury) Williams L. (Yellow Cards) Zidane L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Granada: Lemos A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Burgos: Garcia F. (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Granada won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Granada won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Burgos CF	8	4	2	2	12:9	3	14
9	Granada CF	8	3	2	3	13:13	0	11

Last Results with these Odds

Granada - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.97%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Burgos - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 30.28%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Granada CF
Spanish LaLiga2
10.05.26	Córdoba - Granada	1:0 ✺
01.05.26	Zaragoza - Granada	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Granada - Almería	2:4 ✺
19.04.26	Albacete Balompié - Granada	4:1 ✺
12.04.26	Granada - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWLLW
- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
09.05.26	Burgos - Almería	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Real Sociedad B - Burgos	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Burgos - Deportivo A Coruña	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Castellón - Burgos	3:1 ✺
11.04.26	Burgos - Sporting de Gijón	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
22.09.25	Burgos - Granada	1:1
10.01.25	Granada - Burgos	0:0
29.09.24	Burgos - Granada	2:2
04.03.23	Burgos - Granada	1:3
11.12.22	Granada - Burgos	1:0

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