Match Info

EFL Trophy

Date: 6 October 2026, Tuesday

Location: Blundell Park (Cleethorpes)

Referee: Bannister A. (Eng)


	Grimsby Town		Burton Albion

	1	X	2
	1.90	3.90	3.30	Watch
	1.90	3.50	3.20
	2.08	3.50	2.85	Watch
	1.96	4.02	3.32
	2.35	3.72	2.71	Watch
	1.94	3.95	3.20
	1.93	3.96	3.35	Watch
	1.97	3.70	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.37)	3.78 ↑ (3.61)	3.15 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grimsby Town
46.2%

Draw
24.5%

Burton Albion
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

25.7%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

25.8%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grimsby Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grimsby Town's performance.

Burton Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Burton Albion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grimsby Town than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grimsby Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Burton Albion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Grimsby Town - Burton Albion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cartwright H. (G) 12. Foulkes J. 6. Lavelle S. 24. Tharme D. (C) 36. Graham A. 8. Doyle C. 28. Cartwright F. 10. Finch S. 11. Reynolds R. 23. Brown H. 9. Morgan I.	27. Dudek K. (G) 56. Earley W. 50. Willow J. 20. Sraha J. (C) 53. Gilbert C. 41. Krubally S. 55. Piper K. 23. Adiele E. 29. Adom K. 40. Scutt Z. 52. Henry M.
Substitutes
14. Amaluzor J. 41. Auton S. (G) 4. Green K. 2. Kacurri M. 26. Pruti E. 35. Smith E. 30. Vernam C.	58. Clarke J. (G) 57. Hetheridge W. 59. Jones D. 61. Keller R. 54. Meakin R. 60. Oyemade S.
Coaches
Artell D.	Bowyer G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Cartwright F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Willow J. ↓, Meakin R. ↑,
46', Lavelle S. ↓, Kacurri M. ↑,
46', Piper K. ↓, Jones D. ↑,
59', Kacurri M. 🟨,
62', Cartwright F. ↓, Smith E. ↑,
62', Morgan I. ↓, Vernam C. ↑,
82', Adiele E. 🟨,
86', Brown H. ↓, Green K. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Green K. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Sraha J. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Vernam C. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Adiele E. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Finch S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Scutt Z. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Foulkes J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Jones D. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In recent outings, Grimsby has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Burton is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Grimsby has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:0.

Specifically in home fixtures for Grimsby against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals.

Outrights of English EFL Trophy for now

Grimsby: 0.99% Burton: 0.64%

Last Results with these Odds

Grimsby Town - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 39.09%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Burton Albion - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.23%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grimsby Town
English League Two
03.10.26	Grimsby Town - Shrewsbury Town	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Newport County - Grimsby Town	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
22.09.26	Notts County - Grimsby Town	2:1 ✺
English League Two
19.09.26	Grimsby Town - Crawley Town	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Grimsby Town - Bristol Rovers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLWW
- Burton Albion
English League One
03.10.26	Burton Albion - Huddersfield Town	1:3 ✺
26.09.26	Plymouth Argyle - Burton Albion	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
22.09.26	Burton Albion - Nottingham Forest U21	1:2 penalties ✺
English League One
19.09.26	Burton Albion - Mansfield Town	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Oxford United - Burton Albion	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
07.01.23	Grimsby Town - Burton Albion	1:0

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