The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Burton Albion 36.8%
Draw 28%
Mansfield Town 35.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
37.6%
26.3%
36%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.5%
25.7%
35.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Burton Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
Mansfield Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (+1.7%)
The ML Model estimate for Mansfield Town aligns with the current prediction.
Burton Albion - Mansfield Town Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
34. Addai C. (G) 6. Sibbick T. 16. Tilt C. (C) 24. Araujo H. 15. Lofthouse K. 4. Chauke K. 14. Collar W. 3. Armer J. 18. Vickers C. 8. Webster C. 17. Borges Rodrigues R.
1. Roberts L. (G) 4. Hewitt E. 23. Oshilaja A. 5. Sweeney R. (C) 25. Reed L. 22. Moriah-Welsh N. 24. Hendry R. 16. Thompson L. 3. McLaughlin S. 14. Smith M. 17. McGoldrick D.
Substitutes
23. Adiele E. 29. Adom K. 19. Dennis M. 27. Dudek K. (G) 41. Krubally S. 40. Scutt Z. 20. Sraha J.
7. Akins L. 20. Blake-Tracy F. 8. Bolton L. 9. Bowery J. 2. Knoyle K. 21. Lewis H. (G) 18. Oates R.
Coaches
Bowyer G.
Clough N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Oshilaja A. (Own goal),
21', Hewitt E. 🟨,
23', Sweeney R. 🟨,
28', 2 - 0, Armer J. ⚽, Vickers C. (A),
39', Collar W. 🟨,
40', 2 - 1, Smith M. ⚽, Moriah-Welsh N. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Hewitt E. ↓, Knoyle K. ↑,
49', Reed L. 🟨,
53', Thompson L. ↓, Oates R. ↑,
59', Smith M. 🟨,
62', Smith M. ↓, Bolton L. ↑,
62', Moriah-Welsh N. ↓, Akins L. ↑,
62', Collar W. ↓, Krubally S. ↑,
63', Vickers C. ↓, Dennis M. ↑,
63', Araujo H. ↓, Adom K. ↑,
70', 2 - 2, Akins L. ⚽,
75', McLaughlin S. ↓, Blake-Tracy F. ↑,
82', Borges Rodrigues R. ↓, Adiele E. ↑,
90+3', Blake-Tracy F. 🟨,
Preview
A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11th and 17th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burton won 2.
Burton has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Mansfield has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Burton: Dennis M.
(Inactive).
Confirmed absences for Mansfield: Cargill B.
(Inactive)
Dodgson O.
(Red Card).
Doubtful / questionable for Mansfield: Bowery J.
(Inactive)
Russell J.
(Inactive).
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Burton has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 14:10 (averaging 1.4:1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Burton against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 9:6 goals (averaging 1.5:1 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
11
Mansfield
10
4
3
3
16:15
1
15
14
Burton
12
3
5
4
16:18
-2
14
Outrights of English League One for now
Mansfield: 2.12% Burton: 0.57%
Last Results with these Odds
Burton Albion - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.65%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.
Mansfield Town - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.05%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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Addai C. (G) 
Sibbick T. 
Araujo H. 
Chauke K. 
Armer J. 
Borges Rodrigues R. 
Hewitt E. 
Sweeney R. (C) 
Moriah-Welsh N. 
Dudek K. (G) 
Akins L. 
Bowery J. 
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