Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 29

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Carlo Zecchini (Grosseto)


	Grosseto		Follonica Gavorrano

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.15	7.3
	1.37	4.34	6.78
	1.38	4.4	6.99	Watch
	1.36	3.9	7
	1.37	4.3	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 (1.37)	4.22 ↓ (4.35)	7.05 ↓ (7.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grosseto
65.9%

Draw
21.4%

Follonica Gavorrano
12.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.5%

20.9%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

19.7%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grosseto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Follonica Gavorrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grosseto than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Follonica Gavorrano than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Grosseto - Follonica Gavorrano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 0 - 1, ⚽,
75', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group E (Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grosseto won 3.

Grosseto is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Follonica Gavorrano is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Grosseto is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Grosseto won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Grosseto won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Follonica Gavorrano	6	4	2	0	9:3	6	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Grosseto
Italian Serie D - Group E
22.03.26	Terranuova Traiana - Grosseto	0:1 ✺
15.03.26	Grosseto - Scandicci	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Poggibonsi - Grosseto	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Grosseto - Orvietana	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Tau Altopascio - Grosseto	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTWLW
- Follonica Gavorrano
Italian Serie D - Group E
22.03.26	Follonica Gavorrano - Montevarchi	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Foligno - Follonica Gavorrano	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Follonica Gavorrano - Seravezza Pozzi	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Ghiviborgo - Follonica Gavorrano	6:2 ✺
15.02.26	Follonica Gavorrano - San Donato Tavarnelle	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
16.11.25	Follonica Gavorrano - Grosseto	2:4
09.03.25	Grosseto - Follonica Gavorrano	2:2
03.11.24	Follonica Gavorrano - Grosseto	0:2
18.02.24	Grosseto - Follonica Gavorrano	1:0
15.10.23	Follonica Gavorrano - Grosseto	1:1
19.02.23	Follonica Gavorrano - Grosseto	2:1
16.10.22	Grosseto - Follonica Gavorrano	0:0

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